TY - JOUR
T1 - What future for marine renewable energy in Portugal and Spain up to 2030?
T2 - Forecasting plausible scenarios using general morphological analysis and clustering techniques
AU - Vieira, Mário
AU - Macedo, Ana
AU - Alvarenga, António
AU - Lafoz, Marcos
AU - Villalba, Isabel
AU - Blanco, Marcos
AU - Rojas, Rodrigo
AU - Romero-Filgueira, Alejandro
AU - García-Mendoza, Adriana
AU - Santos-Herran, Miguel
AU - Alves, Marco
N1 - Funding Information:
This work has been developed in the frame of the activities promoted and supported by the Programa de Ciencia y Tecnología para el Desarrollo ( CYTED ) under the thematic network REMAR: OPORTUNIDADES DE INTEGRACIÓN EN REDES ELÉCTRICAS IBEROAMERICANAS DE LAS ENERGÍAS DEL MAR – https://www.cyted.org/es/remar .
Funding Information:
General Morphological Analysis (GMA) allows the framing of complex problems, dependent on technical and (primarily) non-technical influences, such as social interactions, learning effects, technological disruption, amongst many others. It was first proposed by Fritz Zwicky, a Swiss astrophysicist and aerospace scientist (Zwicky, 1948a, 1948b, 1960) Interestingly, it was first implemented to support the classification of astrophysical objects, but the potential of the method for supporting the analysis of wicked problems has been steadily revealed up to today. Morphological analysis has been implemented by several research groups in the USA and Europe working in policy and foresight. It was in 1995, with the implementation of advanced computer support for GMA, that the Swedish Defence Research Agency made it possible to create complex non-quantified inference models, that significantly widen the applicability of the method (Ritchey, 2011). Michel Godet has also strongly contributed to the development and adaptation of morphological analysis for future forecasting, notably through the Morphol tool (Godet, 2001).Although there have been advances in terms of generating conditions for testing these technologies, there have been some setbacks, as well. In Portugal, the feed-in tariff scheme defined for wave energy in the past is now terminated. Furthermore, the political support given to these technologies cooled down after the unsuccess of some projects and the appearance of more promising technologies – such as floating offshore wind.This work has been developed in the frame of the activities promoted and supported by the Programa de Ciencia y Tecnología para el Desarrollo (CYTED) under the thematic network REMAR: OPORTUNIDADES DE INTEGRACIÓN EN REDES ELÉCTRICAS IBEROAMERICANAS DE LAS ENERGÍAS DEL MAR – https://www.cyted.org/es/remar.
Publisher Copyright:
© 2023 The Authors
PY - 2024/1
Y1 - 2024/1
N2 - Marine renewables – which include mainly wave, tidal and current energy – have been hailed, for the past decades, as a potential solution to support the decarbonization of the society. Portugal and Spain have been traditionally avid for the testing and demonstration of such technologies, but the implementation of marine capacity is yet marginal, and there are many uncertainties regarding the future of the sector in the region. The main objective of this article is to show a future projection of marine renewable energies in both Iberian and Macaronesian regions for 2030 to research and technological development communities. To obtain this future projection, General Morphological Analysis and advanced clustering techniques have been used. The results are divided into five groups of potential scenarios, which vary significantly due to different political, social and technological parameters. The influence of variables such as innovation speed, infrastructure implementation, and comprehensive metocean data availability emerges as pivotal determinants shaping the sector's course. The knowledge from this systematization is expected to be used by researchers, technicians, governments or by any other agency involved in marine renewable energies in Spain and Portugal, as a guidance for their new projects and research lines.
AB - Marine renewables – which include mainly wave, tidal and current energy – have been hailed, for the past decades, as a potential solution to support the decarbonization of the society. Portugal and Spain have been traditionally avid for the testing and demonstration of such technologies, but the implementation of marine capacity is yet marginal, and there are many uncertainties regarding the future of the sector in the region. The main objective of this article is to show a future projection of marine renewable energies in both Iberian and Macaronesian regions for 2030 to research and technological development communities. To obtain this future projection, General Morphological Analysis and advanced clustering techniques have been used. The results are divided into five groups of potential scenarios, which vary significantly due to different political, social and technological parameters. The influence of variables such as innovation speed, infrastructure implementation, and comprehensive metocean data availability emerges as pivotal determinants shaping the sector's course. The knowledge from this systematization is expected to be used by researchers, technicians, governments or by any other agency involved in marine renewable energies in Spain and Portugal, as a guidance for their new projects and research lines.
KW - Clustering
KW - Forecast
KW - Marine renewables
KW - Morphological analysis
KW - Scenarios
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85175195491&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113859
DO - 10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113859
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85175195491
SN - 0301-4215
VL - 184
JO - Energy Policy
JF - Energy Policy
M1 - 113859
ER -
