Urban growth on coastal erosion vulnerable stretches

Coastal zones are unique and irreversible ecosystems on a human scale. Its delicate balance is currently under threat by the intensive use of coastal spaces, particularly by the artificial land uses in these coastal areas. In addition to the artificialization of coastal zones, these areas face a range of additional problems of human and biophysical nature. The most widespread problem is coastal erosion, which results from a combination of natural factors and that is aggravated by human action. From an integrated coastal zone management perspective, it is essential to frame the compatibilization of adverse factors and interests so that the development model of these areas doesn't compromise the use of coastal resources by future generations. In this context, the application of predictive models that allow for the ex-ante impact assessment of spatial planning policies and options is an important tool to support decisions as it reduces the degree of uncertainty surrounding these decisions. In this study we use satellite imagery and remote sensing techniques to evaluate, through an urban growth model, the land use/cover changes occurred over the period 1996 to 2006. We also combine a coastal erosion vulnerability model and an urban growth simulation model to assess the implications of coastal erosion on artificial land uses in the Ovar-Mira (central Portugal) stretch by the year 2030.