The pivotal role of electricity to the deep decarbonization of energy system: Cost-effectiveness options for Portugal

This paper aims to explore the impacts of deep decarbonization in Portugal up to 2050. The technological bottom-up model TIMES_PT is used to generate three scenarios; a reference case (REF), a deep decarbonization one (CO2-85) and an electrification one (ELC70). Results show that the electrification of the Portuguese economy contributes significantly towards decarbonization but that this is not a linear relation. For very steep reductions of less 85% emissions than in 1990, other mechanisms play a role, namely energy efficiency. Eletrification is not always the synonym of renewable power, although it is cost-effective to deploy renewable power plants up to the maximum technical potentials of wind onshore and hydro. The electrification is ensured by massive deployment of renewable energy sources power plants, mainly solar photovoltaics and concentrated solar power, as well as wind offshore (to a smaller extent). We have found that the end use technologies that contribute the most for the massive eletrification of the Portuguese economy are electric vehicles, heat pumps (both in residential and commercial buildings) and dryers and kilns in some industry sectors. Ongoing work expands this analysis using a global equilibrium model to better assess economic impacts of electrification.