The impact of vaccination on the evolution of COVID-19 in Portugal

Beatriz Machado, Liliana Antunes, Constantino Caetano, João F. Pereira, Baltazar Nunes, Paula Patrício, M. Luísa Morgado

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

10 Citations (Scopus)
9 Downloads (Pure)


In this work we use simple mathematical models to study the impact of vaccination against COVID-19 in Portugal. First, we fit a SEIR type model without vaccination to the Portuguese data on confirmed cases of COVID-19 by the date of symptom onset, from the beginning of the epidemic until the 23rd January of 2021, to estimate changes in the transmission intensity. Then, by including vaccination in the model we develop different scenarios for the fade-out of the non pharmacological intervention (NPIs) as vaccine coverage increases in the population according to Portuguese vaccination goals. We include a feedback function to mimic the implementation and relaxation of NPIs, according to some disease incidence thresholds defined by the Portuguese health authorities.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)936-952
Number of pages17
JournalMathematical Biosciences and Engineering
Issue number1
Publication statusPublished - 2022


  • COVID-19
  • Epidemiology
  • SEIR model
  • Vaccination


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