The impact of vaccination on the evolution of COVID-19 in Portugal

Beatriz Machado; Liliana Antunes; Constantino Caetano; João F. Pereira; Baltazar Nunes; Paula Patrício; M. Luísa Morgado

doi:10.3934/mbe.2022043

The impact of vaccination on the evolution of COVID-19 in Portugal

Beatriz Machado, Liliana Antunes, Constantino Caetano, João F. Pereira, Baltazar Nunes, Paula Patrício, M. Luísa Morgado

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Abstract

In this work we use simple mathematical models to study the impact of vaccination against COVID-19 in Portugal. First, we fit a SEIR type model without vaccination to the Portuguese data on confirmed cases of COVID-19 by the date of symptom onset, from the beginning of the epidemic until the 23rd January of 2021, to estimate changes in the transmission intensity. Then, by including vaccination in the model we develop different scenarios for the fade-out of the non pharmacological intervention (NPIs) as vaccine coverage increases in the population according to Portuguese vaccination goals. We include a feedback function to mimic the implementation and relaxation of NPIs, according to some disease incidence thresholds defined by the Portuguese health authorities.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	936-952
Number of pages	17
Journal	Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering
Volume	19
Issue number	1
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.3934/mbe.2022043
Publication status	Published - 2022

Keywords

COVID-19
Epidemiology
SEIR model
Vaccination

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

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10.3934/mbe.2022043Licence: CC BY

10.3934_mbe.2022043Final published version, 980 KBLicence: CC BY

Cite this

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AU - Caetano, Constantino

AU - Pereira, João F.

AU - Nunes, Baltazar

AU - Patrício, Paula

AU - Morgado, M. Luísa

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The impact of vaccination on the evolution of COVID-19 in Portugal

Abstract

Keywords

UN SDGs

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