The Horn of Africa Pattern of Power: Continuity and Changes within the region and beyond (1998-2018)

This paper applies Martin Wight’s definition of a pattern of power as ‘’ The enemy of my enemy is my friend’’ to understanding the Horn of Africa security dynamics. The paper shows that a pattern of power has long characterized the Horn of Africa’s security dynamics. However, alliances and rivalries within and
beyond the region seem to have impacted upon the region’s axis since the 1998-2000 war between Eritrea and Ethiopia. The Horn of Africa and Gulf States’ relations have changed since the crisis that has opposed Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates to Qatar. Turkey has become a key player in
the region siding with Qatar. To what extent the pattern of power which has characterized the Horn of Africa’s security dynamics is being subordinated to the Gulf States’ rivalry in the region? To what extent has the volatile and shifting pattern of alliance formation been tamed by the Gulf States’ interference
in the region? These questions are key to understanding the current predicament of the region and the prospects of peace between Eritrea and Ethiopia. The Horn of Africa is at the epicenter of global economic shifts with significant strategic and political implications. Against this background, the paper aims to contribute to understanding the region’s security dynamics since the war between Ethiopia and Eritrea (1998-2000) until the more recent rapprochement in 2018 between Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and Eritrea’s President Issaias Afewerki. The paper aims to understanding the influence of external actors, specifically the Gulf States, in this rapprochement, as well as the implications of these
states‘ interference in the Horn of Africa’s security dynamics. In addition, the paper aims to contribute to understanding the implications of the rapprochement between Eritrea and Ethiopia to the regional and domestic political arenas.