The fiscal consequences of deflation: evidence from the golden age of globalization

António Afonso, João Tovar Jalles

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Abstract

We study the fiscal consequences of deflation on a panel of 17 economies in the first wave of globalization, between 1870 and 1914. By means of impulse response analyses and panel regressions, we find that a 1% fall in the price level is associated with an increase in the public debt ratio of about 0.23–0.33 percentage points and accounting for trade openness, monetary policy and the exchange rate raises the absolute value of the coefficient on deflation. For government revenue, lagged deflation comes out with a statistically significant negative coefficient, while government primary expenditure seems relatively invariant to changes in prices. Moreover, a 1% decrease in the price level is associated with a rise in the revenue to GDP ratio of about 0.02 percentage points, a reverse Olivera-Tanzi effect.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)129-147
JournalQuarterly Review of Economics and Finance
Volume74
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Nov 2019

Keywords

  • Business cycle
  • Cross-sectional dependencies
  • Debt
  • GMM
  • Impulse response functions
  • Inflation
  • Local projection

Fingerprint Dive into the research topics of 'The fiscal consequences of deflation: evidence from the golden age of globalization'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.

  • Cite this