The effects of Integrated Management System certification in financial stability and effective indicator forecasting: A test case using Artificial Neural Networks

The benefits of Integrated Management Systems (Quality, Environmental, and Safety Management) certification are often discussed. While some authors suggest that certification brings financial stability, limited proof exists on this stance, especially when aiming to build on such stability to forecast future performance. The objective of this work was to evaluate the use of Artificial Intelligence to perform KPI financial forecasting in companies with certified Integrated Management Systems (IMS) and in companies without IMS certification, and then compare the results to verify whether or not the results are similar. Using an artificial neural network (ANN) model, financial indicators were forecasted both for companies that are IMS-certified and companies that are not. Data from 50 certified organizations and 50 non-certified organizations was used to train the model. Interpretation of the results was done using relative error analysis. Results showed substantial differences, with forecasts done on data from IMS-certified companies presenting much-improved accuracy. This study shows that the use of ANN to support the prediction of financial performance indicators is feasible while contributing to a better understanding of the benefits of Integrated Systems Management certification.