The effect of extreme cold temperatures on the risk of death in the two major Portuguese cities

Liliana Antunes, Susana Pereira Silva, Jorge Marques, Baltazar Nunes, Sílvia Antunes

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

7 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

It is well known that meteorological conditions influence the comfort and human health. Southern European countries, including Portugal, show the highest mortality rates during winter, but the effects of extreme cold temperatures in Portugal have never been estimated. The objective of this study was the estimation of the effect of extreme cold temperatures on the risk of death in Lisbon and Oporto, aiming the production of scientific evidence for the development of a real-time health warning system. Poisson regression models combined with distributed lag non-linear models were applied to assess the exposure-response relation and lag patterns of the association between minimum temperature and all-causes mortality and between minimum temperature and circulatory and respiratory system diseases mortality from 1992 to 2012, stratified by age, for the period from November to March. The analysis was adjusted for over dispersion and population size, for the confounding effect of influenza epidemics and controlled for long-term trend, seasonality and day of the week. Results showed that the effect of cold temperatures in mortality was not immediate, presenting a 1–2-day delay, reaching maximum increased risk of death after 6–7 days and lasting up to 20–28 days. The overall effect was generally higher and more persistent in Lisbon than in Oporto, particularly for circulatory and respiratory mortality and for the elderly. Exposure to cold temperatures is an important public health problem for a relevant part of the Portuguese population, in particular in Lisbon.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)127-135
Number of pages9
JournalInternational Journal of Biometeorology
Volume61
Issue number1
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2017

Fingerprint

Extreme Cold
Mortality
mortality
Portugal
temperature
Temperature
Nonlinear Dynamics
Health
cardiovascular system
Cardiovascular System
Population Density
influenza
warning system
Respiratory System
Human Influenza
Public Health
seasonality
cold
city
effect

Keywords

  • Cold effect
  • Distributed lag non-linear models
  • Minimum temperature
  • Mortality
  • Relative risk

Cite this

Antunes, Liliana ; Silva, Susana Pereira ; Marques, Jorge ; Nunes, Baltazar ; Antunes, Sílvia. / The effect of extreme cold temperatures on the risk of death in the two major Portuguese cities. In: International Journal of Biometeorology. 2017 ; Vol. 61, No. 1. pp. 127-135.
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The effect of extreme cold temperatures on the risk of death in the two major Portuguese cities. / Antunes, Liliana; Silva, Susana Pereira; Marques, Jorge; Nunes, Baltazar; Antunes, Sílvia.

In: International Journal of Biometeorology, Vol. 61, No. 1, 2017, p. 127-135.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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