The demographics of defense and security in Japan

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contributionpeer-review


Long-term demographic trends influence defense and security policies and international politics in multiple ways. This paper forecasts the size and the age and sex composition of the Japanese population until 2080 and estimates its impact on the recruitment pool of military forces. We use a stochastic population forecasting method based on coherent functional data models for mortality, fertility, and migration. Our results show that the country will experience a prolonged period of total and working-age population decline and aging, with major negative implications on the recruitment and retention of SDF forces. Potential remedies to uphold the country’s security and defense capabilities are discussed. Our approach can be extended to other demographic markers and to other countries and inform public and private decision making.
Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationDevelopments and Advances in Defense and Security
Subtitle of host publicationProceedings of MICRADS 2021
EditorsÁlvaro Rocha, Carlos Hernan Fajardo-Toro, José María Riola Rodríguez
Place of PublicationSingapore
ISBN (Electronic)978-981-16-4884-7
ISBN (Print)978-981-16-4886-1, 9789811648830
Publication statusPublished - 1 Jan 2022
Event2021 Multidisciplinary International Conference of Research Applied to Defense and Security - Cartagena, Colombia
Duration: 18 Aug 202121 Aug 2021

Publication series

NameSmart Innovation, Systems and Technologies
ISSN (Print)2190-3018
ISSN (Electronic)2190-3026


Conference2021 Multidisciplinary International Conference of Research Applied to Defense and Security
Abbreviated titleMICRADS´21


  • Stochastic population forecast
  • Security and defense forces
  • Functional demographic models
  • Military recruitment
  • Population economics


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