TY - GEN
T1 - The demographics of defense and security in Japan
AU - Bravo, Jorge Miguel
N1 - Bravo, J. M. (2022). The demographics of defense and security in Japan. In Á. Rocha, C. H. Fajardo-Toro, & J. M. R. Rodríguez (Eds.), Developments and Advances in Defense and Security: Proceedings of MICRADS 2021 (pp. 359-370). (Smart Innovation, Systems and Technologies; Vol. 255). Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-16-4884-7_29
PY - 2022/1/1
Y1 - 2022/1/1
N2 - Long-term demographic trends influence defense and security policies and international politics in multiple ways. This paper forecasts the size and the age and sex composition of the Japanese population until 2080 and estimates its impact on the recruitment pool of military forces. We use a stochastic population forecasting method based on coherent functional data models for mortality, fertility, and migration. Our results show that the country will experience a prolonged period of total and working-age population decline and aging, with major negative implications on the recruitment and retention of SDF forces. Potential remedies to uphold the country’s security and defense capabilities are discussed. Our approach can be extended to other demographic markers and to other countries and inform public and private decision making.
AB - Long-term demographic trends influence defense and security policies and international politics in multiple ways. This paper forecasts the size and the age and sex composition of the Japanese population until 2080 and estimates its impact on the recruitment pool of military forces. We use a stochastic population forecasting method based on coherent functional data models for mortality, fertility, and migration. Our results show that the country will experience a prolonged period of total and working-age population decline and aging, with major negative implications on the recruitment and retention of SDF forces. Potential remedies to uphold the country’s security and defense capabilities are discussed. Our approach can be extended to other demographic markers and to other countries and inform public and private decision making.
KW - Stochastic population forecast
KW - Security and defense forces
KW - Functional demographic models
KW - Military recruitment
KW - Population economics
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85119357652&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1007/978-981-16-4884-7_29
DO - 10.1007/978-981-16-4884-7_29
M3 - Conference contribution
SN - 978-981-16-4886-1
SN - 9789811648830
T3 - Smart Innovation, Systems and Technologies
SP - 359
EP - 370
BT - Developments and Advances in Defense and Security
A2 - Rocha, Álvaro
A2 - Fajardo-Toro, Carlos Hernan
A2 - Rodríguez, José María Riola
PB - Springer
CY - Singapore
T2 - 2021 Multidisciplinary International Conference of Research Applied to Defense and Security
Y2 - 18 August 2021 through 21 August 2021
ER -
