TY - JOUR
T1 - The climate change potential effects on the run-of-river plant and the environmental and economic dimensions of sustainability
AU - Michels-Brito, Adriane
AU - Rodriguez, Daniel Andrés
AU - Cruz Junior, Wellington Luís
AU - Vianna, João Nildo de Souza
N1 - Funding Information:
info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/FCT/6817 - DCRRNI ID/UIDB%2F04292%2F2020/PT#
PROEX/PPG-CDS/UnB and INCT/Odisseia -Observatory of socio-environmental dynamics: sustainability and adaptation to climate, environmental and demographic changes under the National Institutes of Science and Technology Program (Call INCT – MCTI/CNPq/CAPES/FAPs n.16/2014 ), with financial support from Coordination for the Improvement of Higher Education Personnel ( Capes ): Grant 23038.000776/2017–54 ; National Council for Scientific and Technological Development ( CNPq ): Grant 465483/2014-3 ; Research Support Foundation of the Federal District,( FAPDF ): Grant 193.001 .
Funding Information:
info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/FCT/6817 - DCRRNI ID/UIDB%2F04292%2F2020/PT#
This research was supported by Funda??o para a Ci?ncia e a Tecnologia, with granted number of UIDB/04292/2020, PROEX/PPG-CDS/UnB and INCT/Odisseia-Observatory of socio-environmental dynamics: sustainability and adaptation to climate, environmental and demographic changes under the National Institutes of Science and Technology Program (Call INCT ? MCTI/CNPq/CAPES/FAPs n.16/2014), with financial support from Coordination for the Improvement of Higher Education Personnel (Capes): Grant 23038.000776/2017?54; National Council for Scientific and Technological Development (CNPq): Grant 465483/2014-3; Research Support Foundation of the Federal District,(FAPDF): Grant 193.001.
Funding Information:
The authors would like to thank the Center of Sustainable Development at the University of Brasilia (CDS/UnB), the National Institute of Space Research (INPE),Marine and Environmental Science Centre (MARE), Nova School of Science and Technology (FCT/UNL), INCT/Odisseia-Observatory of socio-environmental dynamics: sustainability and adaptation to climate, environmental and demographic changes and The Alberto Luiz Coimbra Institute for Graduate Studies and Research in Engineering – COPPE, for their support.
Publisher Copyright:
© 2021 Elsevier Ltd
PY - 2021/9
Y1 - 2021/9
N2 - In this work, we evaluate the environmental and economic sustainability dimensions of a run-of-river hydroelectric plant operation regarding environmental impacts and potential direct and indirect effects of climate change. Results suggest the generation of a vicious cycle of clean generation and dirty generation, enhanced by a positive feedback with climate change impacts. This cycle is triggered by the tradeoffs between environmental protection policies and the socioeconomic pressure for energy production, embedded in an energy production matrix that prioritizes fossil fuel-based production as responses to peak energy demand. The climate projections were generated by the Eta Regional Climate Model from the National Institute for Space Research. They were forced by the atmospheric simulations of the Interdisciplinary Climate Research Model (MIROC5) and the Hadley Center Global Environmental Model (HadGEM2-ES) under the RCP4.5 and RCP 8.5 emission scenarios. The MHD-INPE Distributed Hydrological Model was used to generate streamflow projections. Environmental impacts were assessed by accounting for carbon stock and sequestration, greenhouse gas emissions, and energy cost. Climate projections indicated reduced precipitation and increased temperature. The streamflow will present progressively reductions of the flow volume until the end of the century, which undermines the plant's ability to ensure firm energy and induce thermal plants' activation to supply the demand. This activation will lead to an increase in greenhouse gas emissions and an increase in the price of energy, which may lower the benefits in carbon stock associated with a run-of-river hydropower plant and negatively influence the reduction commitments assumed by Brazil.
AB - In this work, we evaluate the environmental and economic sustainability dimensions of a run-of-river hydroelectric plant operation regarding environmental impacts and potential direct and indirect effects of climate change. Results suggest the generation of a vicious cycle of clean generation and dirty generation, enhanced by a positive feedback with climate change impacts. This cycle is triggered by the tradeoffs between environmental protection policies and the socioeconomic pressure for energy production, embedded in an energy production matrix that prioritizes fossil fuel-based production as responses to peak energy demand. The climate projections were generated by the Eta Regional Climate Model from the National Institute for Space Research. They were forced by the atmospheric simulations of the Interdisciplinary Climate Research Model (MIROC5) and the Hadley Center Global Environmental Model (HadGEM2-ES) under the RCP4.5 and RCP 8.5 emission scenarios. The MHD-INPE Distributed Hydrological Model was used to generate streamflow projections. Environmental impacts were assessed by accounting for carbon stock and sequestration, greenhouse gas emissions, and energy cost. Climate projections indicated reduced precipitation and increased temperature. The streamflow will present progressively reductions of the flow volume until the end of the century, which undermines the plant's ability to ensure firm energy and induce thermal plants' activation to supply the demand. This activation will lead to an increase in greenhouse gas emissions and an increase in the price of energy, which may lower the benefits in carbon stock associated with a run-of-river hydropower plant and negatively influence the reduction commitments assumed by Brazil.
KW - Amazonia
KW - Climate change
KW - Energy
KW - Run-of-river plants
KW - Sustainability
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85107959740&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/j.rser.2021.111238
DO - 10.1016/j.rser.2021.111238
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85107959740
SN - 1364-0321
VL - 147
JO - Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews
JF - Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews
M1 - 111238
ER -