The Changing Determinants of the Vote

Richard Gunther, Marina Costa Lobo, Paollo Bellucci, Marco Lisi

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingChapterpeer-review

2 Citations (Scopus)


This chapter presents a unique opportunity to evaluate the importance of leaders across a wider range of social and political contexts. It explores the determinants of the vote in two different rounds of analysis. The chapter examines the impact on voting choice of the conventional set of explanatory factors: long-term socio-demographic, attitudinal orientations (ideological orientation and party identification) and short-term campaign-specific factors (attitudes towards the leading candidates and assessments of the government’s performance in managing the economy). After completing the evaluation of the relative impact of conventional determinants of the vote, the chapter undertakes a second round of multivariate analysis in which the two sets of variables that are signature contributions to this research by the Comparative National Elections Project (CNEP) are added to the equations. Political elites, the basic nature of political parties and their electoral-mobilization strategies play extremely important roles in determining the relative importance of various factors as determinants of the vote.
Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationVoting in Old and New Democracies
EditorsRichard Gunther, Paul A. Beck, Pedro C. Magalhães, Alejandro Moreno
Place of PublicationNew York
Number of pages39
ISBN (Electronic)9781317430476, 9781315691558
ISBN (Print)9781138913318
Publication statusPublished - 2015


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