Temperature frequency and mortality: assessing adaptation to local temperature

Yao Wu; Bo Wen; Antonio Gasparrini; Ben Armstrong; Francesco Sera; Eric Lavigne; Shanshan Li; Yuming Guo; Ala Overcenco; Aleš Urban; Alexandra Schneider; Alireza Entezari; Ana Maria Vicedo-Cabrera; Antonella Zanobetti; Antonis Analitis; Ariana Zeka; Aurelio Tobias; Baltazar Nunes; Barrak Alahmad; Bertil Forsberg; Carmen Íñiguez; Caroline Ameling; César De la Cruz Valencia; Danny Houthuijs; Do Van Dung; Dominic Roye; Ene Indermitte; Fatemeh Mayvaneh; Fiorella Acquaotta; Francesca de'Donato; Gabriel Carrasco-Escobar; Haidong Kan; Hanne Krage Carlsen; Hans Orru; Ho Kim; Iulian Horia Holobaca; Jan Kyselý; Joana Madureira; Joel Schwartz; Jouni J.K. Jaakkola; Klea Katsouyanni; Magali Hurtado Diaz; Martina S. Ragettli; Masahiro Hashizume; Mathilde Pascal; Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho; Nicolás Valdés Ortega; Niilo Ryti; Noah Scovronick; Paola Michelozzi; Patricia Matus Correa; Patrick Goodman; Paulo Hilario Nascimento Saldiva; Raanan Raz; Rosana Abrutzky; Samuel Osorio; Shih Chun Pan; Shilpa Rao; Shilu Tong; Souzana Achilleos; Tran Ngoc Dang; Valentina Colistro; Veronika Huber; Whanhee Lee; Xerxes Seposo; Yasushi Honda; Yoonhee Kim; Yue Leon Guo

doi:10.1016/j.envint.2024.108691

Temperature frequency and mortality: assessing adaptation to local temperature

Yao Wu, Bo Wen, Antonio Gasparrini, Ben Armstrong, Francesco Sera, Eric Lavigne, Shanshan Li, Yuming Guo, Ala Overcenco, Aleš Urban, Alexandra Schneider, Alireza Entezari, Ana Maria Vicedo-Cabrera, Antonella Zanobetti, Antonis Analitis, Ariana Zeka, Aurelio Tobias, Baltazar Nunes, Barrak Alahmad, Bertil ForsbergCarmen Íñiguez, Caroline Ameling, César De la Cruz Valencia, Danny Houthuijs, Do Van Dung, Dominic Roye, Ene Indermitte, Fatemeh Mayvaneh, Fiorella Acquaotta, Francesca de'Donato, Gabriel Carrasco-Escobar, Haidong Kan, Hanne Krage Carlsen, Hans Orru, Ho Kim, Iulian Horia Holobaca, Jan Kyselý, Joana Madureira, Joel Schwartz, Jouni J.K. Jaakkola, Klea Katsouyanni, Magali Hurtado Diaz, Martina S. Ragettli, Masahiro Hashizume, Mathilde Pascal, Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho, Nicolás Valdés Ortega, Niilo Ryti, Noah Scovronick, Paola Michelozzi, Patricia Matus Correa, Patrick Goodman, Paulo Hilario Nascimento Saldiva, Raanan Raz, Rosana Abrutzky, Samuel Osorio, Shih Chun Pan, Shilpa Rao, Shilu Tong, Souzana Achilleos, Tran Ngoc Dang, Valentina Colistro, Veronika Huber, Whanhee Lee, Xerxes Seposo, Yasushi Honda, Yoonhee Kim, Yue Leon Guo

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Abstract

Assessing the association between temperature frequency and mortality can provide insights into human adaptation to local ambient temperatures. We collected daily time-series data on mortality and temperature from 757 locations in 47 countries/regions during 1979–2020. We used a two-stage time series design to assess the association between temperature frequency and all-cause mortality. The results were pooled at the national, regional, and global levels. We observed a consistent decrease in the risk of mortality as the normalized frequency of temperature increases across the globe. The average increase in mortality risk comparing the 10th to 100th percentile of normalized frequency was 13.03% (95% CI: 12.17–13.91), with substantial regional differences (from 4.56% in Australia and New Zealand to 33.06% in South Europe). The highest increase in mortality was observed for high-income countries (13.58%, 95% CI: 12.56–14.61), followed by lower-middle-income countries (12.34%, 95% CI: 9.27–15.51). This study observed a declining risk of mortality associated with higher temperature frequency. Our findings suggest that populations can adapt to their local climate with frequent exposure, with the adapting ability varying geographically due to differences in climatic and socioeconomic characteristics.

Original language	English
Article number	108691
Journal	Environment International
Volume	187
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2024.108691
Publication status	Published - May 2024

Keywords

Adaptation
Climate change
Frequency
Mortality
Temperature

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

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10.1016/j.envint.2024.108691

Wu Env Int 2024 187 108691Final published version, 4.2 MBLicence: CC BY

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Wu, Y., Wen, B., Gasparrini, A., Armstrong, B., Sera, F., Lavigne, E., Li, S., Guo, Y., Overcenco, A., Urban, A., Schneider, A., Entezari, A., Vicedo-Cabrera, A. M., Zanobetti, A., Analitis, A., Zeka, A., Tobias, A., Nunes, B., Alahmad, B., ... Guo, Y. L. (2024). Temperature frequency and mortality: assessing adaptation to local temperature. Environment International, 187, Article 108691. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2024.108691

@article{81fa54b3c3a848ac9650d87999e14235,

title = "Temperature frequency and mortality: assessing adaptation to local temperature",

abstract = "Assessing the association between temperature frequency and mortality can provide insights into human adaptation to local ambient temperatures. We collected daily time-series data on mortality and temperature from 757 locations in 47 countries/regions during 1979–2020. We used a two-stage time series design to assess the association between temperature frequency and all-cause mortality. The results were pooled at the national, regional, and global levels. We observed a consistent decrease in the risk of mortality as the normalized frequency of temperature increases across the globe. The average increase in mortality risk comparing the 10th to 100th percentile of normalized frequency was 13.03% (95% CI: 12.17–13.91), with substantial regional differences (from 4.56% in Australia and New Zealand to 33.06% in South Europe). The highest increase in mortality was observed for high-income countries (13.58%, 95% CI: 12.56–14.61), followed by lower-middle-income countries (12.34%, 95% CI: 9.27–15.51). This study observed a declining risk of mortality associated with higher temperature frequency. Our findings suggest that populations can adapt to their local climate with frequent exposure, with the adapting ability varying geographically due to differences in climatic and socioeconomic characteristics.",

keywords = "Adaptation, Climate change, Frequency, Mortality, Temperature",

author = "Yao Wu and Bo Wen and Antonio Gasparrini and Ben Armstrong and Francesco Sera and Eric Lavigne and Shanshan Li and Yuming Guo and Ala Overcenco and Ale{\v s} Urban and Alexandra Schneider and Alireza Entezari and Vicedo-Cabrera, {Ana Maria} and Antonella Zanobetti and Antonis Analitis and Ariana Zeka and Aurelio Tobias and Baltazar Nunes and Barrak Alahmad and Bertil Forsberg and Carmen {\'I}{\~n}iguez and Caroline Ameling and {la Cruz Valencia}, {C{\'e}sar De} and Danny Houthuijs and {Van Dung}, Do and Dominic Roye and Ene Indermitte and Fatemeh Mayvaneh and Fiorella Acquaotta and Francesca de'Donato and Gabriel Carrasco-Escobar and Haidong Kan and Carlsen, {Hanne Krage} and Hans Orru and Ho Kim and Holobaca, {Iulian Horia} and Jan Kysel{\'y} and Joana Madureira and Joel Schwartz and Jaakkola, {Jouni J.K.} and Klea Katsouyanni and Diaz, {Magali Hurtado} and Ragettli, {Martina S.} and Masahiro Hashizume and Mathilde Pascal and {de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho}, Micheline and Ortega, {Nicol{\'a}s Vald{\'e}s} and Niilo Ryti and Noah Scovronick and Paola Michelozzi and Correa, {Patricia Matus} and Patrick Goodman and {Nascimento Saldiva}, {Paulo Hilario} and Raanan Raz and Rosana Abrutzky and Samuel Osorio and Pan, {Shih Chun} and Shilpa Rao and Shilu Tong and Souzana Achilleos and Dang, {Tran Ngoc} and Valentina Colistro and Veronika Huber and Whanhee Lee and Xerxes Seposo and Yasushi Honda and Yoonhee Kim and Guo, {Yue Leon}",

note = "Funding Information: This article appreciates the contribution of MCC network collaborators. This article is published in memory of Simona Fratianni who helped to contribute the data for Romania. Support for title page creation and format was provided by AuthorArranger, a tool developed at the National Cancer Institute. This study was supported by the Australian Research Council ( DP210102076 ) and the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council ( GNT2000581 ). YW and BW were supported by China Scholarship Council [grant numbers 202006010044 and 202006010043 ]. AU was supported by the Czech Science Foundation (project number 22-24920S ); PHNS by the S\u00E3o Paulo Research Foundation (FAPESP); ST by the Science and Technology Commission of Shanghai Municipality (grant number 18411951600 ); AG and FS by the Medical Research Council UK (grant ID MR/R013349/1 ), the Natural Environment Research Council UK (grant ID NE/R009384/1 ), and the EU\u2019s Horizon 2020 project, Exhaustion (grant ID 820655 ); FdD by the EU\u2019s Horizon 2020 project, Exhaustion (grant ID 820655 ). SL was supported by an Emerging Leader Fellowship of the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council ( GNT2009866 ). YG was supported by the Career Development Fellowship ( GNT1163693 ) and Leader Fellowship ( GNT2008813 ) of the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council. The funders had no role in study design, data collection, analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript. Funding Information: This article appreciates the contribution of MCC network collaborators. This article is published in memory of Simona Fratianni who helped to contribute the data for Romania. Support for title page creation and format was provided by AuthorArranger, a tool developed at the National Cancer Institute. This study was supported by the Australian Research Council (DP210102076) and the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council (GNT2000581). YW and BW were supported by China Scholarship Council [grant numbers 202006010044 and 202006010043]. AU was supported by the Czech Science Foundation (project number 22-24920S); PHNS by the S\u00E3o Paulo Research Foundation (FAPESP); ST by the Science and Technology Commission of Shanghai Municipality (grant number 18411951600); AG and FS by the Medical Research Council UK (grant ID MR/R013349/1), the Natural Environment Research Council UK (grant ID NE/R009384/1), and the EU's Horizon 2020 project, Exhaustion (grant ID 820655); FdD by the EU's Horizon 2020 project, Exhaustion (grant ID 820655). SL was supported by an Emerging Leader Fellowship of the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council (GNT2009866). YG was supported by the Career Development Fellowship (GNT1163693) and Leader Fellowship (GNT2008813) of the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council. The funders had no role in study design, data collection, analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript. Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2024",

year = "2024",

month = may,

doi = "10.1016/j.envint.2024.108691",

language = "English",

volume = "187",

journal = "Environment International",

issn = "0160-4120",

publisher = "Elsevier",

}

Wu, Y, Wen, B, Gasparrini, A, Armstrong, B, Sera, F, Lavigne, E, Li, S, Guo, Y, Overcenco, A, Urban, A, Schneider, A, Entezari, A, Vicedo-Cabrera, AM, Zanobetti, A, Analitis, A, Zeka, A, Tobias, A, Nunes, B, Alahmad, B, Forsberg, B, Íñiguez, C, Ameling, C, la Cruz Valencia, CD, Houthuijs, D, Van Dung, D, Roye, D, Indermitte, E, Mayvaneh, F, Acquaotta, F, de'Donato, F, Carrasco-Escobar, G, Kan, H, Carlsen, HK, Orru, H, Kim, H, Holobaca, IH, Kyselý, J, Madureira, J, Schwartz, J, Jaakkola, JJK, Katsouyanni, K, Diaz, MH, Ragettli, MS, Hashizume, M, Pascal, M, de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho, M, Ortega, NV, Ryti, N, Scovronick, N, Michelozzi, P, Correa, PM, Goodman, P, Nascimento Saldiva, PH, Raz, R, Abrutzky, R, Osorio, S, Pan, SC, Rao, S, Tong, S, Achilleos, S, Dang, TN, Colistro, V, Huber, V, Lee, W, Seposo, X, Honda, Y, Kim, Y & Guo, YL 2024, 'Temperature frequency and mortality: assessing adaptation to local temperature', Environment International, vol. 187, 108691. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2024.108691

TY - JOUR

T1 - Temperature frequency and mortality

T2 - assessing adaptation to local temperature

AU - Wu, Yao

AU - Wen, Bo

AU - Gasparrini, Antonio

AU - Armstrong, Ben

AU - Sera, Francesco

AU - Lavigne, Eric

AU - Li, Shanshan

AU - Guo, Yuming

AU - Overcenco, Ala

AU - Urban, Aleš

AU - Schneider, Alexandra

AU - Entezari, Alireza

AU - Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana Maria

AU - Zanobetti, Antonella

AU - Analitis, Antonis

AU - Zeka, Ariana

AU - Tobias, Aurelio

AU - Nunes, Baltazar

AU - Alahmad, Barrak

AU - Forsberg, Bertil

AU - Íñiguez, Carmen

AU - Ameling, Caroline

AU - la Cruz Valencia, César De

AU - Houthuijs, Danny

AU - Van Dung, Do

AU - Roye, Dominic

AU - Indermitte, Ene

AU - Mayvaneh, Fatemeh

AU - Acquaotta, Fiorella

AU - de'Donato, Francesca

AU - Carrasco-Escobar, Gabriel

AU - Kan, Haidong

AU - Carlsen, Hanne Krage

AU - Orru, Hans

AU - Kim, Ho

AU - Holobaca, Iulian Horia

AU - Kyselý, Jan

AU - Madureira, Joana

AU - Schwartz, Joel

AU - Jaakkola, Jouni J.K.

AU - Katsouyanni, Klea

AU - Diaz, Magali Hurtado

AU - Ragettli, Martina S.

AU - Hashizume, Masahiro

AU - Pascal, Mathilde

AU - de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho, Micheline

AU - Ortega, Nicolás Valdés

AU - Ryti, Niilo

AU - Scovronick, Noah

AU - Michelozzi, Paola

AU - Correa, Patricia Matus

AU - Goodman, Patrick

AU - Nascimento Saldiva, Paulo Hilario

AU - Raz, Raanan

AU - Abrutzky, Rosana

AU - Osorio, Samuel

AU - Pan, Shih Chun

AU - Rao, Shilpa

AU - Tong, Shilu

AU - Achilleos, Souzana

AU - Dang, Tran Ngoc

AU - Colistro, Valentina

AU - Huber, Veronika

AU - Lee, Whanhee

AU - Seposo, Xerxes

AU - Honda, Yasushi

AU - Kim, Yoonhee

AU - Guo, Yue Leon

N1 - Funding Information: This article appreciates the contribution of MCC network collaborators. This article is published in memory of Simona Fratianni who helped to contribute the data for Romania. Support for title page creation and format was provided by AuthorArranger, a tool developed at the National Cancer Institute. This study was supported by the Australian Research Council ( DP210102076 ) and the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council ( GNT2000581 ). YW and BW were supported by China Scholarship Council [grant numbers 202006010044 and 202006010043 ]. AU was supported by the Czech Science Foundation (project number 22-24920S ); PHNS by the S\u00E3o Paulo Research Foundation (FAPESP); ST by the Science and Technology Commission of Shanghai Municipality (grant number 18411951600 ); AG and FS by the Medical Research Council UK (grant ID MR/R013349/1 ), the Natural Environment Research Council UK (grant ID NE/R009384/1 ), and the EU\u2019s Horizon 2020 project, Exhaustion (grant ID 820655 ); FdD by the EU\u2019s Horizon 2020 project, Exhaustion (grant ID 820655 ). SL was supported by an Emerging Leader Fellowship of the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council ( GNT2009866 ). YG was supported by the Career Development Fellowship ( GNT1163693 ) and Leader Fellowship ( GNT2008813 ) of the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council. The funders had no role in study design, data collection, analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript. Funding Information: This article appreciates the contribution of MCC network collaborators. This article is published in memory of Simona Fratianni who helped to contribute the data for Romania. Support for title page creation and format was provided by AuthorArranger, a tool developed at the National Cancer Institute. This study was supported by the Australian Research Council (DP210102076) and the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council (GNT2000581). YW and BW were supported by China Scholarship Council [grant numbers 202006010044 and 202006010043]. AU was supported by the Czech Science Foundation (project number 22-24920S); PHNS by the S\u00E3o Paulo Research Foundation (FAPESP); ST by the Science and Technology Commission of Shanghai Municipality (grant number 18411951600); AG and FS by the Medical Research Council UK (grant ID MR/R013349/1), the Natural Environment Research Council UK (grant ID NE/R009384/1), and the EU's Horizon 2020 project, Exhaustion (grant ID 820655); FdD by the EU's Horizon 2020 project, Exhaustion (grant ID 820655). SL was supported by an Emerging Leader Fellowship of the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council (GNT2009866). YG was supported by the Career Development Fellowship (GNT1163693) and Leader Fellowship (GNT2008813) of the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council. The funders had no role in study design, data collection, analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript. Publisher Copyright: © 2024

PY - 2024/5

Y1 - 2024/5

N2 - Assessing the association between temperature frequency and mortality can provide insights into human adaptation to local ambient temperatures. We collected daily time-series data on mortality and temperature from 757 locations in 47 countries/regions during 1979–2020. We used a two-stage time series design to assess the association between temperature frequency and all-cause mortality. The results were pooled at the national, regional, and global levels. We observed a consistent decrease in the risk of mortality as the normalized frequency of temperature increases across the globe. The average increase in mortality risk comparing the 10th to 100th percentile of normalized frequency was 13.03% (95% CI: 12.17–13.91), with substantial regional differences (from 4.56% in Australia and New Zealand to 33.06% in South Europe). The highest increase in mortality was observed for high-income countries (13.58%, 95% CI: 12.56–14.61), followed by lower-middle-income countries (12.34%, 95% CI: 9.27–15.51). This study observed a declining risk of mortality associated with higher temperature frequency. Our findings suggest that populations can adapt to their local climate with frequent exposure, with the adapting ability varying geographically due to differences in climatic and socioeconomic characteristics.

AB - Assessing the association between temperature frequency and mortality can provide insights into human adaptation to local ambient temperatures. We collected daily time-series data on mortality and temperature from 757 locations in 47 countries/regions during 1979–2020. We used a two-stage time series design to assess the association between temperature frequency and all-cause mortality. The results were pooled at the national, regional, and global levels. We observed a consistent decrease in the risk of mortality as the normalized frequency of temperature increases across the globe. The average increase in mortality risk comparing the 10th to 100th percentile of normalized frequency was 13.03% (95% CI: 12.17–13.91), with substantial regional differences (from 4.56% in Australia and New Zealand to 33.06% in South Europe). The highest increase in mortality was observed for high-income countries (13.58%, 95% CI: 12.56–14.61), followed by lower-middle-income countries (12.34%, 95% CI: 9.27–15.51). This study observed a declining risk of mortality associated with higher temperature frequency. Our findings suggest that populations can adapt to their local climate with frequent exposure, with the adapting ability varying geographically due to differences in climatic and socioeconomic characteristics.

KW - Adaptation

KW - Climate change

KW - Frequency

KW - Mortality

KW - Temperature

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U2 - 10.1016/j.envint.2024.108691

DO - 10.1016/j.envint.2024.108691

M3 - Article

C2 - 38718673

AN - SCOPUS:85192287383

SN - 0160-4120

VL - 187

JO - Environment International

JF - Environment International

M1 - 108691

ER -

Temperature frequency and mortality: assessing adaptation to local temperature

Abstract

Keywords

UN SDGs

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