Strategic planning based on demographic projections of school demand: what challenges do the different actors have to face?

As partners, municipal and school authorities are faced with the challenge of strategically planning the education of their young citizens. When we refer to strategic planning, we envision it divided into three stages: analysis or diagnosis of the system; policy formulation; and action plan. The first stage deals with the diagnosis of the existing reality by quantifying the population that is going to be educated. This quantification has been developed based on a cross-sectional analysis. We chose to present a methodology based on a longitudinal analysis, namely the reconstruction of the educational trajectories of individuals of the same cohort, thus applying the principles of demographic analysis to school events (Bandeira, 2007). This methodology allows us not only to analyse current educational trends but also to project the impact of maintaining enrolment and education rates in the 2025 timeframe, based on projection scenarios of the population within the normal age for attending school. Therefore, we took the municipality of Castelo Branco as the unit of analysis and applied the principles of demographic analysis to school events. As a result, and despite the limitations identified throughout the study, we think the longitudinal analysis of the school trajectories of students coupled with population projections allows us to have a better understanding of the possible and/or probable futures regarding school demand in Castelo Branco.