Sports Analytics: maximizing precision in predicting MLB base hits

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Abstract

As the world of sports expands to never seen levels, so does the necessity for tools which provided material advantages for organizations and other stakeholders. The main objective of this paper is to build a predictive model capable of predicting what are the odds of a baseball player getting a base hit on a given day, with the intention of both winning the game Beat the Streak and to provide valuable information for the coaching staff. Using baseball statistics, weather forecasts and ballpark characteristics several models were built with the CRISP-DM architecture. The main constraints considered when building the models were balancing, outliers, dimensionality reduction, variable selection and the type of algorithm – Logistic Regression, Multi-layer Perceptron, Random Forest and Stochastic Gradient Descent. The results obtained were positive, in which the best model was a Multi-layer Perceptron with an 85% correct pick ratio.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationProceedings of the 11th International Joint Conference on Knowledge Discovery, Knowledge Engineering and Knowledge Management (IC3K 2019)
EditorsAna Fred, Joaquim Filipe
PublisherSciTePress
Pages190-201
Number of pages12
ISBN (Electronic)9789897583827
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1 Jan 2019
Event11th International Joint Conference on Knowledge Discovery, Knowledge Engineering and Knowledge Management, IC3K 2019 - Vienna, Austria
Duration: 17 Sep 201919 Sep 2019

Publication series

NameIC3K 2019 - Proceedings of the 11th International Joint Conference on Knowledge Discovery, Knowledge Engineering and Knowledge Management
Volume1

Conference

Conference11th International Joint Conference on Knowledge Discovery, Knowledge Engineering and Knowledge Management, IC3K 2019
CountryAustria
CityVienna
Period17/09/1919/09/19

Keywords

  • Baseball
  • Classification Model
  • Data Mining
  • Machine Learning
  • MLB
  • Predictive Analysis

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  • Cite this

    Alceo, P., & Henriques, R. (2019). Sports Analytics: maximizing precision in predicting MLB base hits. In A. Fred, & J. Filipe (Eds.), Proceedings of the 11th International Joint Conference on Knowledge Discovery, Knowledge Engineering and Knowledge Management (IC3K 2019) (pp. 190-201). (IC3K 2019 - Proceedings of the 11th International Joint Conference on Knowledge Discovery, Knowledge Engineering and Knowledge Management; Vol. 1). SciTePress. https://doi.org/10.5220/0008362201900201