Pseudo phase plane and fractional calculus modeling of western global economic downturn

J. A. Tenreiro Machado, Maria Eugénia Mata

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

77 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

This paper applies Pseudo Phase Plane (PPP) and Fractional Calculus (FC) mathematical tools for modeling world economies. A challenging global rivalry among the largest international economies began in the early 1970s, when the post-war prosperity declined. It went on, up to now. If some worrying threatens may exist actually in terms of possible ambitious military aggression, invasion, or hegemony, countries' PPP relative positions can tell something on the current global peaceful equilibrium. A global political downturn of the USA on global hegemony in favor of Asian partners is possible, but can still be not accomplished in the next decades. If the 1973 oil chock has represented the beginning of a long-run recession, the PPP analysis of the last four decades (1972-2012) does not conclude for other partners' global dominance (Russian, Brazil, Japan, and Germany) in reaching high degrees of similarity with the most developed world countries. The synergies of the proposed mathematical tools lead to a better understanding of the dynamics underlying world economies and point towards the estimation of future states based on the memory of each time series.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)396-406
Number of pages11
JournalCommunications In Nonlinear Science And Numerical Simulation
Volume22
Issue number1-3
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1 May 2015

Keywords

  • Economy
  • Fractional calculus
  • Pseudo phase plane
  • System modeling

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