Predicting independence 6 and 18 months after ischemic stroke considering differences in 12 countries: a secondary analysis of the IST-3 trial

Objectives. This study is aimed at identifying the best clinical model to predict poststroke independence at 6 and 18 months, considering sociodemographic and clinical characteristics, and then identifying differences between countries. Methods. Data was retrieved from the International Stroke Trial 3 study. Nine clinical variables (age, gender, severity, rt-PA, living alone, atrial fibrillation, history of transient ischemic attack/stroke, and abilities to lift arms and walk) were measured immediately after the stroke and considered to predict independence at 6 and 18 months poststroke. Independence was measured using the Oxford Handicap Scale. The adequacy, predictive capacity, and discriminative capacity of the models were checked. Countries were added to the final models. Results. At 6 months poststroke, 35.8% (n=1088) of participants were independent, and at 18 months, this proportion decreased to 29.9% (n=747). Both 6 and 18 months poststroke predictive models obtained fair discriminatory capacities. Gender, living alone, and rt-PA only reached predictive significance at 18 months. Poststroke patients from Poland and Sweden showed greater chances to achieve independence at 6 months compared to the UK. Poland also achieved greater chances at 18 months. Italy had worse chances than the UK at both follow-ups. Discussion. Six and eight variables predicted poststroke independence at 6 and 18 months, respectively. Some variables only reached significance at 18 months, suggesting a late influence in stroke patients' rehabilitation. Differences found between countries in achieving independence may be related to healthcare system organization or cultural characteristics, a hypothesis that must be addressed in future studies. These results can allow the development of tailored interventions to improve the outcomes.