Predicting children's myopia risk: a Monte Carlo approach to compare the performance of machine learning models

Piotr Artiemjew, Radosław Cybulski, Mohammad Hassan Emamian, Andrzej Grzybowski, Andrzej Jankowski, Carla Lanca, Shiva Mehravaran, Marcin Młyński, Cezary Morawski, Klaus Nordhausen, Olavi Pärssinen, Krzysztof Ropiak

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contributionpeer-review

Abstract

This study presents the initial results of the Myopia Risk Calculator (MRC) Consortium, introducing an innovative approach to predict myopia risk by using trustworthy machine-learning models. The dataset included approximately 7,945 records (eyes) from 3,989 children. We developed a myopia risk calculator and an accompanying web interface. Central to our research is the challenge of model trustworthiness, specifically evaluating the effectiveness and robustness of AI (Artificial Intelligence)/ML (Machine Learning)/NLP (Nat-ural Language Processing) models. We adopted a robust methodology combining Monte Carlo simulations with cross-validation techniques to assess model performance. Our experiments revealed that an ensemble of classifiers and regression models with Lasso regression techniques provided the best outcomes for predicting myopia risk. Future research aims to enhance model accuracy by integrating image and synthetic data, including advanced Monte Carlo simulations.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationProceedings of the 16th International Conference on Agents and Artificial Intelligence
EditorsAP Rocha, L Steels, J Herik
Place of PublicationSetúbal
PublisherSciTePress - Science and Technology Publications
Pages1092-1099
Number of pages8
Volume3
ISBN (Print)978-989-758-680-4
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2024
Event16th International Conference on Agents and Artificial Intelligence, ICAART 2024 - Rome, Italy
Duration: 24 Feb 202426 Feb 2024

Publication series

NameInternational Conference on Agents and Artificial Intelligence
ISSN (Print)2184-3589

Conference

Conference16th International Conference on Agents and Artificial Intelligence, ICAART 2024
Country/TerritoryItaly
CityRome
Period24/02/2426/02/24

Keywords

  • Data Analysis
  • Lasso Regression
  • Machine Learning
  • Monte Carlo Simulations
  • Myopia Prediction

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