Pre-test probability of obstructive coronary stenosis in patients undergoing coronary CT angiography: Comparative performance of the modified diamond-Forrester algorithm versus methods incorporating cardiovascular risk factors

Antonio Miguel Ferreira, Hugo Marques, Antonio Tralhao, Miguel Borges Santos, Ana Rita Santos, Goncalo Cardoso, Helder Dores, Maria Salome Carvalho, Sergio Madeira, Francisco Pereira Machado, Nuno Cardim, Pedro de Araújo Gonçalves

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

7 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Background: Current guidelines recommend the use of the Modified Diamond-Forrester (MDF) method to assess the pre-test likelihood of obstructive coronary artery disease (CAD). We aimed to compare the performance of the MDF method with two contemporary algorithms derived from multicenter trials that additionally incorporate cardiovascular risk factors: the calculator-based `CAD Consortium 2' method, and the integer-based CONFIRM score. Methods: We assessed 1069 consecutive patients without known CAD undergoing coronary CT angiography (CCTA) for stable chest pain. Obstructive CAD was defined as the presence of coronary stenosis textgreater= 50% on 64-slice dual-source CT. The three methods were assessed for calibration, discrimination, net reclassification, and changes in proposed downstream testing based upon calculated pre-test likelihoods. Results: The observed prevalence of obstructive CAD was 13.8% (n = 147). Overestimations of the likelihood of obstructive CAD were 140.1%, 9.8%, and 18.8%, respectively, for the MDF, CAD Consortium 2 and CONFIRM methods. The CAD Consortium 2 showed greater discriminative power than the MDF method, with a C-statistic of 0.73 vs. 0.70 (p textless 0.001), while the CONFIRM score did not (C-statistic 0.71, p = 0.492). Reclassification of pre-test likelihood using the `CAD Consortium 2' or CONFIRM scores resulted in a net reclassification improvement of 0.19 and 0.18, respectively, which would change the diagnostic strategy in approximately half of the patients. Conclusions: Newer risk factor-encompassing models allow for a more precise estimation of pre-test probabilities of obstructive CAD than the guideline-recommended MDF method. Adoption of these scores may improve disease prediction and change the diagnostic pathway in a significant proportion of patients. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)346-351
Number of pages6
JournalInternational Journal of Cardiology
Volume222
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1 Nov 2016

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