Political neglect and support for the radical right: The case of rural Portugal

Why are rural voters more likely to support radical right parties? This paper examines the mechanisms behind the relationship between living in a rural area and supporting the Portuguese radical-right party Chega. Portugal's radical right is an interesting case study, not only because of its belated but very fast electoral growth but also because Portugal represents an unusual case of economic convergence between urban and rural areas in the last decade, challenging one of the traditional explanations for rural populism — economic grievances. Using data from exit polls from the 2022 and 2024 elections, we start by showing that voters living in a rural area are characterized by disproportionally high levels of support for Chega. Then, using a 2023 face-to-face national survey, we use parallel mediation models to test different mechanisms that relate rurality with the vote for the radical right. We find no evidence that cultural and economic factors play a relevant role in the relationship between rurality and the radical right vote in Portugal. Instead, rural residents are more likely to perceive the areas where they live as politically neglected, and it is this perception that feeds, in turn, into support for the radical right. Political neglect emerges as the key mediating factor, shedding light on the dynamics of radical right-wing populism in rural regions.