Permanent and temporary monetary policy shocks and the dynamics of exchange rates

Alexandre Carvalho, João Valle e Azevedo, Pedro Ribeiro

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Abstract

We show the distinction between permanent and temporary monetary policy shocks is helpful to understand the impacts of monetary policy on exchange rates in the short as well as over the long run. Drawing on monthly data for several advanced economies from 1971 to 2019 and resorting to a simple structural vector error correction (SVEC) model, we find that a shock leading to a temporary increase in U.S. nominal interest rates leads to a temporary appreciation of the USD against the other currencies. In turn, a monetary policy shock leading to a permanent rise in nominal interest rates – e.g., one associated with a normalisation of monetary policy after a long period at the zero lower bound – results in a depreciation of the USD, in the short as well as over the long run that may contribute to higher (not lower) inflation also in the short run.

Original languageEnglish
Article number103871
JournalJournal Of International Economics
Volume147
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Jan 2024

Keywords

  • Exchange rates
  • Fisher relation
  • Monetary policy cointegration
  • Monetary shocks
  • Structural VEC models

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