TY - JOUR
T1 - Modelling the natural gas dynamics in the Southern Cone of Latin America
AU - Chávez-Rodríguez, Mauro Francisco
AU - Dias, Luís
AU - Simoes, Sofia
AU - Seixas, Júlia
AU - Hawkes, Adam D.
AU - Szklo, Alexandre
AU - Lucena, André F. P.
N1 - The authors wish to thank Rafael Soria for the data delivered to model power generation in Brazil and Kannan Ramachandran for his guidelines in CPLEX to solve in TIMES high memory usage models as the TIMES_ConoSur. We thank to Daniela Varela, Fabiola Rodrigues, Javier Bustos, Alex Koberle and Eveline Vasquez for their useful expertise and support about Argentinian and Chilean energy systems. We are grateful to Giovanni Machado of EPE for the insights on natural gas modeling in Brazil. Finally, we acknowledge the financial support from CNPq, particularly the CNPq/TWAS (Processes 190318/2011-2) for the full time postgraduate fellowship that sponsored this research.
PY - 2017/9/1
Y1 - 2017/9/1
N2 - Natural gas plays an important role in the Southern cone energy system, and is expected to increase in primary supply in the future. This paper presents a new energy systems model for the Southern Cone region of Latin America, covering five regions (Argentina, Bolivia, South and Centre Chile, North Chile, and Brazil) with the aim to explore, up to 2030, the interplay between (i) the expected consumption of natural gas for electricity generation and end-use consumption (i.e. residential, commercial, transport and industry) in each country, (ii) the inter- and intra-country potential role as producer and consumer of natural gas, and (iii) the possible supply network of LNG and natural gas via pipeline and domestic production. It is found that, under a Constrained Investment Scenario, the gross domestic gas production of the Southern Cone from 2012 to 2030 could be 62 Tcf, whereas under an Unconstrained Scenario, it could rise to 75 Tcf. This highlights the economic potential of the unconventional gas resources of Argentina and projections of associated gas from the Campos and Santos basins in Brazil. However, accessing these resources poses financial challenges. Nonetheless, results clearly indicate significant potential for an increase in regional natural gas trade in the Southern Cone.
AB - Natural gas plays an important role in the Southern cone energy system, and is expected to increase in primary supply in the future. This paper presents a new energy systems model for the Southern Cone region of Latin America, covering five regions (Argentina, Bolivia, South and Centre Chile, North Chile, and Brazil) with the aim to explore, up to 2030, the interplay between (i) the expected consumption of natural gas for electricity generation and end-use consumption (i.e. residential, commercial, transport and industry) in each country, (ii) the inter- and intra-country potential role as producer and consumer of natural gas, and (iii) the possible supply network of LNG and natural gas via pipeline and domestic production. It is found that, under a Constrained Investment Scenario, the gross domestic gas production of the Southern Cone from 2012 to 2030 could be 62 Tcf, whereas under an Unconstrained Scenario, it could rise to 75 Tcf. This highlights the economic potential of the unconventional gas resources of Argentina and projections of associated gas from the Campos and Santos basins in Brazil. However, accessing these resources poses financial challenges. Nonetheless, results clearly indicate significant potential for an increase in regional natural gas trade in the Southern Cone.
KW - Integrated models
KW - Latin America
KW - LNG
KW - Unconventional gas
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85019560244&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/j.apenergy.2017.05.061
DO - 10.1016/j.apenergy.2017.05.061
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85019560244
VL - 201
SP - 219
EP - 239
JO - Applied Energy
JF - Applied Energy
SN - 0306-2619
ER -