Modelling insurgent-incumbent dynamics: Vector autoregressions, multivariate Markov chains, and the nature of technological competition

Bruno Damásio, Sandro Mendonça

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Abstract

The struggle between sail and steam is a long-standing theme in economic history. But this technological competition story has only partly tackled, since most studies have appreciated the rivalry between the two alternative modes of commercial sea carriage in the late 19th century while the early period has remained relatively under-analysed. This paper models the early dynamics between the two capital goods using a vector autoregression approach (VAR) and a Multivariate Markov Chain approach (MMC). We find evidence that the relationship was non-linear, with a strong indication of complementarities and cross-technology learning effects.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)843-849
Number of pages7
JournalApplied Economics Letters
Volume26
Issue number10
Early online date30 Jul 2018
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Apr 2019

Keywords

  • Economic history
  • multivariate Markov chains
  • sailing ships
  • steamships
  • technological competition
  • vector autoregression

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