Measuring revisions to subjective expectations

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22 Citations (Scopus)


This paper develops a new metric to measure revisions to subjective expectations and proposes a survey design strategy that enables the estimation of the metric. As an application, I analyze how women update their ex pectations about the effectiveness of contraception methods. The women interviewed exhibit substantial heterogeneity in the way they revise their expectations with receipt of the same information. When relating the heterogeneity in the updating process to observable characteristics, I find that schooling, having a regular sexual partner and knowledge and use of birth control methods have a large impact on the revision process about the effectiveness of contraceptives.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)43-82
JournalJournal Of Risk And Uncertainty
Issue number1
Publication statusPublished - 1 Jan 2008


  • subjective expectations
  • prior
  • posterior distribution
  • updating


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