Measuring labor supply and demand shocks during COVID-19

Pedro Brinca, Joao B. Duarte, Miguel Faria-e-Castro

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

55 Citations (Scopus)


We measure labor demand and supply shocks at the sector level around the COVID-19 outbreak by estimating a Bayesian structural vector autoregression on monthly statistics of hours worked and real wages. Most sectors were subject to large negative labor supply and demand shocks in March and April 2020, with substantial heterogeneity in the size of shocks across sectors. Our estimates suggest that two-thirds of the drop in the aggregate growth rate of hours in March and April 2020 are attributable to labor supply. We validate our estimates of supply shocks by showing that they are correlated with sectoral measures of telework.

Original languageEnglish
Article number103901
JournalEuropean Economic Review
Publication statusPublished - Oct 2021


  • COVID-19
  • Sign restrictions
  • Structural vector autoregressions
  • Supply and demand shocks


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