Macao air quality forecast using statistical methods

The levels of air pollution in Macao often exceeded the levels recommended by WHO. In order for the population to take precautionary measures and avoid further health risks under high pollutant exposure, it is important to develop a reliable air quality forecast. Statistical models based on linear multiple regression (MR) and classification and regression trees (CART) analysis were developed successfully, for Macao, to predict the next day concentrations of NO₂, PM₁₀, PM_2.5, and O₃. All the developed models were statistically significantly valid with a 95% confidence level with high coefficients of determination (from 0.78 to 0.93) for all pollutants. The models utilized meteorological and air quality variables based on 5 years of historical data, from 2013 to 2017. Data from 2013 to 2016 were used to develop the statistical models and data from 2017 was used for validation purposes. A wide range of meteorological and air quality variables was identified, and only some were selected as significant independent variables. Meteorological variables were selected from an extensive list of variables, including geopotential height, relative humidity, atmospheric stability, and air temperature at different vertical levels. Air quality variables translate the resilience of the recent past concentrations of each pollutant and usually are maximum and/or the average of latest 24-h levels. The models were applied in forecasting the next day average daily concentrations for NO₂ and PM and maximum hourly O₃ levels for five air quality monitoring stations. The results are expected to be an operational air quality forecast for Macao.