The European Union has endorsed the goal of keeping global warming below 2C, establishing the objective of reducing its greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions by 80 to 95% in 2050 face to 1990 values. ‘The Roadmap for moving to a competitive low carbon economy in 2050’ outlines the EU strategy to achieve this target, prompting Member States to develop similar exercises. This paper aims to present an analysis of the cost-effective opportunities in Portugal to achieve an 80% GHG abatement target by 2050. Six scenarios combining different conditions of technological development (frozen and optimistic evolution), GHG mitigation (-80% cap and no additional climate action) and energy prices elasticities (with and without) are generated through the bottom-up model TIMES_PT. The modeling exercise shows that it is feasible for Portugal to achieve a low carbon future, even under a technology frozen (TF) scenario, although higher energy consumption and different technological options are observed. Wave technology in power sector and hydrogen trucks in transports only appear in technology evolution scenario (TE) after 2030, which are replaced by a higher wind offshore power production and ethanol trucks in TF scenario. Electric mobility is anticipated in TE appearing in 2015 through light-duty electric vehicles, while for TF scenario gasoline plug-in vehicles just became cost effective in 2040. These technology differences are also reflected in total system costs, which are 54 bn€2011 higher in TF scenario. Energy prices elasticities do not changed significantly the technology options, although in terms of total costs a reduction of around 53 bn€2011 and 16 bn€2011 (about 31% and 9% of the 2011 Portuguese GDP) is observed for TF and TE scenarios, respectively.
|Title of host publication||International Association for Energy Economics|
|Publication status||Published - 1 Jan 2012|
|Event||12th IAEE European Conference, Energy challenge and environmental sustainability - |
Duration: 1 Jan 2012 → …
|Conference||12th IAEE European Conference, Energy challenge and environmental sustainability|
|Period||1/01/12 → …|