Impact of lifting mask mandates on COVID-19 incidence and mortality in Portugal: an ecological study

Introduction: The use of face masks in public was one of several COVID-19 non-pharmaceutical interventions adopted to mitigate the pandemic in Portugal. The aim of this study was to evaluate the impact of lifting the mask mandate on the April 22, 2022 on COVID-19 incidence and mortality in mainland Portugal and in the Azores. As a secondary objective, we aimed to evaluate the evolution of COVID-19 cases in a setting without a mask mandate (Azores islands) and in a setting with a mask mandate (Madeira islands). Methods: Surveillance data on laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 cases and COVID-19 deaths were used to conduct an interrupted time series analysis to estimate changes in daily incidence and deaths during a mask mandate period (28th March - 21st April 2022) and during a post-mask mandate period (22nd April - 15th May 2022), in mainland Portugal and Azores. In a second phase, for each archipelago, we fitted a negative binomial regression model, with daily COVID-19 incident cases as the primary outcome of interest, and relative frequency of Omicron BA.5 lineage as explanatory variable. Results: Significant changes in trends were observed for the overall incidence rate and COVID-19 deaths; increasing trends were observed for COVID-19 incidence and deaths in the post mandate period [5.3% per day; incidence rate ratio (IRR): 1.053; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.029 - 1.078] and [3.2% per day; mortality rate ratio (MRR): 1.032; 95% CI: 1.003 - 1.062], respectively. For every unit increase in the percentage of Omicron BA.5 lineage there was a 1.5% increase per day (IRR: 1.015; 95% CI: 1.006 - 1.024) in COVID-19 incidence rate in the Azores islands, while for Madeira islands an increase of 0.05% COVID-19 cases per day was observed (IRR: 1.005; 95% CI: 1.000 - 1.010). Conclusion: Lifting the mask mandate in Portugal was associated with an increase in COVID-19 incidence and deaths, thus highlighting the positive effect of face mask policies in preventing respiratory virus transmission and saving lives.