TY - JOUR
T1 - How much extreme weather events have affected European power generation in the past three decades?
AU - Brás, T. Armada
AU - Simões, S. G.
AU - Amorim, F.
AU - Fortes, P.
N1 - Funding Information:
TB, SS, and FA are supported by Laboratório Nacional de Energia e Geologia . PF is supported by CENSE - Center for Environmental and Sustainability Research , NOVA School of Science and Technology - NOVA University Lisbon and Portuguese Science Foundation ((UID/04085/2020, 2020.00038.CEECIND).
Publisher Copyright:
© 2023 Elsevier Ltd
PY - 2023/9
Y1 - 2023/9
N2 - Extreme weather events (EWE) can affect energy supply, particularly when energy systems are significantly reliant on renewable energy sources, highly vulnerable to climate and weather conditions. We combine observational energy data from EUROSTAT with records of EWE, between 1990 and 2019, to evaluate European power plants capacity factors (CF) responses to those events. Using a statistical compositing analysis, we show that years with floods and storms increased annual European hydropower CF by 7 and 5.8%, respectively, compared to non-EWE years, while CF of fossil power plants decreased (−2.8%). Similar behaviours are found for Central and Mediterranean countries. From 1993 to 2004 to 2005–2016 European hydropower tripled during floods and quintupled during storms suggesting that the events are becoming more severe or there is more efficient water use. On the contrary, from 1993 to 2016, in every year with droughts/heatwaves the European hydropower decreased (−6.5%), with a subsequent increase of fossil CF (2.3%). Such behaviour is also observed across Central and Eastern Europe. Cold waves negatively affected solar photovoltaic output at the European level and Central Europe (−5%). Vulnerability of wind power plants to floods is increasing: from 1993 to 2004 to 2005–2016 there is 3-fold decrease in the European wind CF; from one flood year to the following, wind CF decreases in Central (−1.9%yr−1) and Eastern Europe (−3.7%yr−1). During droughts/heatwaves, wind CF increases in Central Europe (2%yr−1), but decreases in Mediterranean (−3%yr−1). Shifting to renewable energy sources is key to decarbonization. Is crucial understanding the historical impacts of EWE in the power system towards its resilience and stability.
AB - Extreme weather events (EWE) can affect energy supply, particularly when energy systems are significantly reliant on renewable energy sources, highly vulnerable to climate and weather conditions. We combine observational energy data from EUROSTAT with records of EWE, between 1990 and 2019, to evaluate European power plants capacity factors (CF) responses to those events. Using a statistical compositing analysis, we show that years with floods and storms increased annual European hydropower CF by 7 and 5.8%, respectively, compared to non-EWE years, while CF of fossil power plants decreased (−2.8%). Similar behaviours are found for Central and Mediterranean countries. From 1993 to 2004 to 2005–2016 European hydropower tripled during floods and quintupled during storms suggesting that the events are becoming more severe or there is more efficient water use. On the contrary, from 1993 to 2016, in every year with droughts/heatwaves the European hydropower decreased (−6.5%), with a subsequent increase of fossil CF (2.3%). Such behaviour is also observed across Central and Eastern Europe. Cold waves negatively affected solar photovoltaic output at the European level and Central Europe (−5%). Vulnerability of wind power plants to floods is increasing: from 1993 to 2004 to 2005–2016 there is 3-fold decrease in the European wind CF; from one flood year to the following, wind CF decreases in Central (−1.9%yr−1) and Eastern Europe (−3.7%yr−1). During droughts/heatwaves, wind CF increases in Central Europe (2%yr−1), but decreases in Mediterranean (−3%yr−1). Shifting to renewable energy sources is key to decarbonization. Is crucial understanding the historical impacts of EWE in the power system towards its resilience and stability.
KW - Capacity factor
KW - Compositing analysis
KW - Empirical observations of power generating technologies responses
KW - European renewable energy
KW - Extreme weather events
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85162877774&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/j.rser.2023.113494
DO - 10.1016/j.rser.2023.113494
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85162877774
SN - 1364-0321
VL - 183
JO - Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews
JF - Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews
M1 - 113494
ER -