HIV/AIDS-related expectations and risky sexual behaviour in Malawi

Adeline Delavande, Hans Peter Kohler

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

7 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

We use probabilistic expectations data elicited from survey respondents in rural Malawi to investigate how risky sexual behaviour may be influenced by individuals' expectations about survival, and future HIVstatus, which in turn depend on the perceived impact of HIV/AIDS on survival, expectations about own and partner's current HIV status, and expectations about HIV transmission rates. Subjective expectations, in particular about mortality risk but not the risk of living with HIV, play an important role in determining the decision to have multiple sexual partners. Using our estimated parameters, we simulate the impact of various policies that would influence expectations. An information campaign on mortality risk would decrease risky sexual behaviour on average, whereas an information campaign on HIV transmission risks, which tend to be overestimated by respondents, would actually increase risky behaviour. Also, the expansion of anti-retroviral therapy (ART) treatments to all individuals infected with HIV would increase risky sexual behaviour for a quarter of the HIV-negative individuals or those who have not been tested because they are aware that ART increases life expectancy, and thus reduces the cost of becoming HIV positive.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)118-164
Number of pages47
JournalReview of Economic Studies
Volume83
Issue number1
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2016

Fingerprint

Malawi
Sexual behavior
Therapy
Mortality risk
Costs
Risky behavior
Subjective expectations
Life expectancy

Keywords

  • Hiv/aids
  • Sexual behaviour
  • Subjective expectation

Cite this

@article{ecba0cabe3c24a5cb23130e3aaa18caa,
title = "HIV/AIDS-related expectations and risky sexual behaviour in Malawi",
abstract = "We use probabilistic expectations data elicited from survey respondents in rural Malawi to investigate how risky sexual behaviour may be influenced by individuals' expectations about survival, and future HIVstatus, which in turn depend on the perceived impact of HIV/AIDS on survival, expectations about own and partner's current HIV status, and expectations about HIV transmission rates. Subjective expectations, in particular about mortality risk but not the risk of living with HIV, play an important role in determining the decision to have multiple sexual partners. Using our estimated parameters, we simulate the impact of various policies that would influence expectations. An information campaign on mortality risk would decrease risky sexual behaviour on average, whereas an information campaign on HIV transmission risks, which tend to be overestimated by respondents, would actually increase risky behaviour. Also, the expansion of anti-retroviral therapy (ART) treatments to all individuals infected with HIV would increase risky sexual behaviour for a quarter of the HIV-negative individuals or those who have not been tested because they are aware that ART increases life expectancy, and thus reduces the cost of becoming HIV positive.",
keywords = "Hiv/aids, Sexual behaviour, Subjective expectation",
author = "Adeline Delavande and Kohler, {Hans Peter}",
year = "2016",
doi = "10.1093/restud/rdv028",
language = "English",
volume = "83",
pages = "118--164",
journal = "Review of Economic Studies",
issn = "0034-6527",
publisher = "Oxford University Press",
number = "1",

}

HIV/AIDS-related expectations and risky sexual behaviour in Malawi. / Delavande, Adeline; Kohler, Hans Peter.

In: Review of Economic Studies, Vol. 83, No. 1, 2016, p. 118-164.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

TY - JOUR

T1 - HIV/AIDS-related expectations and risky sexual behaviour in Malawi

AU - Delavande, Adeline

AU - Kohler, Hans Peter

PY - 2016

Y1 - 2016

N2 - We use probabilistic expectations data elicited from survey respondents in rural Malawi to investigate how risky sexual behaviour may be influenced by individuals' expectations about survival, and future HIVstatus, which in turn depend on the perceived impact of HIV/AIDS on survival, expectations about own and partner's current HIV status, and expectations about HIV transmission rates. Subjective expectations, in particular about mortality risk but not the risk of living with HIV, play an important role in determining the decision to have multiple sexual partners. Using our estimated parameters, we simulate the impact of various policies that would influence expectations. An information campaign on mortality risk would decrease risky sexual behaviour on average, whereas an information campaign on HIV transmission risks, which tend to be overestimated by respondents, would actually increase risky behaviour. Also, the expansion of anti-retroviral therapy (ART) treatments to all individuals infected with HIV would increase risky sexual behaviour for a quarter of the HIV-negative individuals or those who have not been tested because they are aware that ART increases life expectancy, and thus reduces the cost of becoming HIV positive.

AB - We use probabilistic expectations data elicited from survey respondents in rural Malawi to investigate how risky sexual behaviour may be influenced by individuals' expectations about survival, and future HIVstatus, which in turn depend on the perceived impact of HIV/AIDS on survival, expectations about own and partner's current HIV status, and expectations about HIV transmission rates. Subjective expectations, in particular about mortality risk but not the risk of living with HIV, play an important role in determining the decision to have multiple sexual partners. Using our estimated parameters, we simulate the impact of various policies that would influence expectations. An information campaign on mortality risk would decrease risky sexual behaviour on average, whereas an information campaign on HIV transmission risks, which tend to be overestimated by respondents, would actually increase risky behaviour. Also, the expansion of anti-retroviral therapy (ART) treatments to all individuals infected with HIV would increase risky sexual behaviour for a quarter of the HIV-negative individuals or those who have not been tested because they are aware that ART increases life expectancy, and thus reduces the cost of becoming HIV positive.

KW - Hiv/aids

KW - Sexual behaviour

KW - Subjective expectation

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84962873323&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1093/restud/rdv028

DO - 10.1093/restud/rdv028

M3 - Article

VL - 83

SP - 118

EP - 164

JO - Review of Economic Studies

JF - Review of Economic Studies

SN - 0034-6527

IS - 1

ER -