Geostatistical Assessement of Spatial Patterns in Precipitation Extremes over Europe

Rita Durão, Maria João Pereira, Ana Cristina Costa, Amílcar Soares

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

Abstract

At a previous study the authors have shown that that the spatial continuity of extreme precipitation events has increased in the last 30 years in southern Portugal (Durão et al., Costa et al., 2008). It also demonstrates a decrease in spatial variability, which means that extreme precipitation events tend to be more spatially homogeneous, which may have a severe impact on water resources, agriculture and soil erosion, particularly when associated with desertification risks. The main objective of this present work is to apply the same analysis to the ECA precipitation data set (http://eca.knmi.nl/) in order to validate this method over Europe and Mediterranean countries.We intend to check if the Portuguese results are local or regional and/or if they there are other regions with similar patterns. For this purpose two indices of extreme precipitation were selected: one representing the frequency of extremely heavy precipitation events (R30) and another one characterizing dry conditions events (RL10) – from daily precipitation observation series. The spatial-temporal dynamics of extreme precipitation events in southern Portugal will be evaluated by using a Direct Sequential Simulation algorithm (DSS models) in order to assess the relationships between spatial and temporal extreme rainfall patterns. Local probability density functions (pdfs) and spatial uncertainty are evaluated by a set of equiprobable simulated images of the chosen extreme precipitation indices. The proposed methodology allows the study of other regions under environmental stress, such as drought and desertification, giving rise to a new approach that accounts for spatial patterns for characterizing and evaluating climate change effects.
Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationGeophysical Research Abstracts
Pages10229-
Volume11
Publication statusPublished - 1 Jan 2009
EventEGU 2009 -10229, European Geosciences Union General Assembly -
Duration: 1 Jan 2009 → …

Conference

ConferenceEGU 2009 -10229, European Geosciences Union General Assembly
Period1/01/09 → …

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desertification
probability density function
environmental stress
soil erosion
drought
water resource
agriculture
rainfall
climate change
methodology
simulation
Europe
index
effect
method
analysis

Cite this

Durão, R., Pereira, M. J., Costa, A. C., & Soares, A. (2009). Geostatistical Assessement of Spatial Patterns in Precipitation Extremes over Europe. In Geophysical Research Abstracts (Vol. 11, pp. 10229-)
Durão, Rita ; Pereira, Maria João ; Costa, Ana Cristina ; Soares, Amílcar . / Geostatistical Assessement of Spatial Patterns in Precipitation Extremes over Europe. Geophysical Research Abstracts. Vol. 11 2009. pp. 10229-
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title = "Geostatistical Assessement of Spatial Patterns in Precipitation Extremes over Europe",
abstract = "At a previous study the authors have shown that that the spatial continuity of extreme precipitation events has increased in the last 30 years in southern Portugal (Dur{\~a}o et al., Costa et al., 2008). It also demonstrates a decrease in spatial variability, which means that extreme precipitation events tend to be more spatially homogeneous, which may have a severe impact on water resources, agriculture and soil erosion, particularly when associated with desertification risks. The main objective of this present work is to apply the same analysis to the ECA precipitation data set (http://eca.knmi.nl/) in order to validate this method over Europe and Mediterranean countries.We intend to check if the Portuguese results are local or regional and/or if they there are other regions with similar patterns. For this purpose two indices of extreme precipitation were selected: one representing the frequency of extremely heavy precipitation events (R30) and another one characterizing dry conditions events (RL10) – from daily precipitation observation series. The spatial-temporal dynamics of extreme precipitation events in southern Portugal will be evaluated by using a Direct Sequential Simulation algorithm (DSS models) in order to assess the relationships between spatial and temporal extreme rainfall patterns. Local probability density functions (pdfs) and spatial uncertainty are evaluated by a set of equiprobable simulated images of the chosen extreme precipitation indices. The proposed methodology allows the study of other regions under environmental stress, such as drought and desertification, giving rise to a new approach that accounts for spatial patterns for characterizing and evaluating climate change effects.",
keywords = "Spatial Patterns, Precipitation Extremes, Geostatistics, Europe",
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Durão, R, Pereira, MJ, Costa, AC & Soares, A 2009, Geostatistical Assessement of Spatial Patterns in Precipitation Extremes over Europe. in Geophysical Research Abstracts. vol. 11, pp. 10229-, EGU 2009 -10229, European Geosciences Union General Assembly, 1/01/09.

Geostatistical Assessement of Spatial Patterns in Precipitation Extremes over Europe. / Durão, Rita; Pereira, Maria João; Costa, Ana Cristina ; Soares, Amílcar .

Geophysical Research Abstracts. Vol. 11 2009. p. 10229-.

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

TY - GEN

T1 - Geostatistical Assessement of Spatial Patterns in Precipitation Extremes over Europe

AU - Durão, Rita

AU - Pereira, Maria João

AU - Costa, Ana Cristina

AU - Soares, Amílcar

PY - 2009/1/1

Y1 - 2009/1/1

N2 - At a previous study the authors have shown that that the spatial continuity of extreme precipitation events has increased in the last 30 years in southern Portugal (Durão et al., Costa et al., 2008). It also demonstrates a decrease in spatial variability, which means that extreme precipitation events tend to be more spatially homogeneous, which may have a severe impact on water resources, agriculture and soil erosion, particularly when associated with desertification risks. The main objective of this present work is to apply the same analysis to the ECA precipitation data set (http://eca.knmi.nl/) in order to validate this method over Europe and Mediterranean countries.We intend to check if the Portuguese results are local or regional and/or if they there are other regions with similar patterns. For this purpose two indices of extreme precipitation were selected: one representing the frequency of extremely heavy precipitation events (R30) and another one characterizing dry conditions events (RL10) – from daily precipitation observation series. The spatial-temporal dynamics of extreme precipitation events in southern Portugal will be evaluated by using a Direct Sequential Simulation algorithm (DSS models) in order to assess the relationships between spatial and temporal extreme rainfall patterns. Local probability density functions (pdfs) and spatial uncertainty are evaluated by a set of equiprobable simulated images of the chosen extreme precipitation indices. The proposed methodology allows the study of other regions under environmental stress, such as drought and desertification, giving rise to a new approach that accounts for spatial patterns for characterizing and evaluating climate change effects.

AB - At a previous study the authors have shown that that the spatial continuity of extreme precipitation events has increased in the last 30 years in southern Portugal (Durão et al., Costa et al., 2008). It also demonstrates a decrease in spatial variability, which means that extreme precipitation events tend to be more spatially homogeneous, which may have a severe impact on water resources, agriculture and soil erosion, particularly when associated with desertification risks. The main objective of this present work is to apply the same analysis to the ECA precipitation data set (http://eca.knmi.nl/) in order to validate this method over Europe and Mediterranean countries.We intend to check if the Portuguese results are local or regional and/or if they there are other regions with similar patterns. For this purpose two indices of extreme precipitation were selected: one representing the frequency of extremely heavy precipitation events (R30) and another one characterizing dry conditions events (RL10) – from daily precipitation observation series. The spatial-temporal dynamics of extreme precipitation events in southern Portugal will be evaluated by using a Direct Sequential Simulation algorithm (DSS models) in order to assess the relationships between spatial and temporal extreme rainfall patterns. Local probability density functions (pdfs) and spatial uncertainty are evaluated by a set of equiprobable simulated images of the chosen extreme precipitation indices. The proposed methodology allows the study of other regions under environmental stress, such as drought and desertification, giving rise to a new approach that accounts for spatial patterns for characterizing and evaluating climate change effects.

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KW - Precipitation Extremes

KW - Geostatistics

KW - Europe

M3 - Conference contribution

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SP - 10229-

BT - Geophysical Research Abstracts

ER -

Durão R, Pereira MJ, Costa AC, Soares A. Geostatistical Assessement of Spatial Patterns in Precipitation Extremes over Europe. In Geophysical Research Abstracts. Vol. 11. 2009. p. 10229-