TY - JOUR
T1 - Foresight in public health
T2 - a tutorial on application and insights on challenges from the PHIRI foresight exercise
AU - Mutubuki, Elizabeth N.
AU - Moye-Holz, Daniela
AU - Peyroteo, Mariana
AU - Lapão, Luís Velez
AU - Hilderink, Henk B. M.
N1 - Funding Information:
This article is part of a joint publication within the PHIRI Consortium. This project received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme (Grant Agreement No. 101018317). Conflicts of interest: None declared
Funding Information:
This article is part of a joint publication within the PHIRI Consortium. This project received funding from the European Union\u2019s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme (Grant Agreement No. 101018317).
Publisher Copyright:
© 2024 The Author(s).
PY - 2024/7/1
Y1 - 2024/7/1
N2 - Background: The application of foresight to the field of public health is limited. There is growing need to anticipate uncertain future trends and to plan for them. Foresight provides tools to experts and policymakers to discuss and plan for possible futures. Hence, the aim of this study is to illustrate how the foresight six-step approach can be applied in public health, and to provide recommendations on dealing with challenges, drawn from the Population Health Information Research Infrastructure (PHIRI) foresight exercise. Methods: In this tutorial, we describe the six-step approach as part of foresight methodology and give examples of possible challenges. Step 1 comprises the formulation of study objectives. Step 2 focuses on developing a conceptual model and applying the Demographic Economic Sociocultural Technological Ecological and Political-Institutional (DESTEP) framework to identify and prioritize driving forces for the topic of interest. In Step 3, a time horizon and spatial level are defined. Step 4 discusses scenario logics. Steps 5 and 6 discuss different types of scenarios and associated tools for analyses. Possible challenges encountered whilst applying the foresight methodology at each of the steps, were drawn from experiences during PHIRI foresight exercise. Results: Challenges associated with applying the foresight six-step approach included: formulating concise objectives, developing a conceptual model, understanding driving forces and uncertainty and difficulties in building scenarios. Conclusions: Understanding concepts used in the six-step approach and how they relate to each other remained difficult. Support from foresight experts, conducting more foresight exercises, tutorials and guidelines can enhance understanding and support building capacity.
AB - Background: The application of foresight to the field of public health is limited. There is growing need to anticipate uncertain future trends and to plan for them. Foresight provides tools to experts and policymakers to discuss and plan for possible futures. Hence, the aim of this study is to illustrate how the foresight six-step approach can be applied in public health, and to provide recommendations on dealing with challenges, drawn from the Population Health Information Research Infrastructure (PHIRI) foresight exercise. Methods: In this tutorial, we describe the six-step approach as part of foresight methodology and give examples of possible challenges. Step 1 comprises the formulation of study objectives. Step 2 focuses on developing a conceptual model and applying the Demographic Economic Sociocultural Technological Ecological and Political-Institutional (DESTEP) framework to identify and prioritize driving forces for the topic of interest. In Step 3, a time horizon and spatial level are defined. Step 4 discusses scenario logics. Steps 5 and 6 discuss different types of scenarios and associated tools for analyses. Possible challenges encountered whilst applying the foresight methodology at each of the steps, were drawn from experiences during PHIRI foresight exercise. Results: Challenges associated with applying the foresight six-step approach included: formulating concise objectives, developing a conceptual model, understanding driving forces and uncertainty and difficulties in building scenarios. Conclusions: Understanding concepts used in the six-step approach and how they relate to each other remained difficult. Support from foresight experts, conducting more foresight exercises, tutorials and guidelines can enhance understanding and support building capacity.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85197640402&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1093/eurpub/ckae040
DO - 10.1093/eurpub/ckae040
M3 - Article
C2 - 38946445
AN - SCOPUS:85197640402
SN - 1101-1262
VL - 34
SP - i87-i93
JO - European Journal of Public Health
JF - European Journal of Public Health
IS - Supplement_1
ER -