TY - JOUR
T1 - Exposure of the EU-28 food imports to extreme weather disasters in exporting countries
AU - Brás, Teresa Armada
AU - Jägermeyr, Jonas
AU - Seixas, Júlia
N1 - PD/BD/114570/2016
UID/AMB/04085/2019
Sem PDF conforme despacho.
PY - 2019/12/1
Y1 - 2019/12/1
N2 - EU-28 relies on a diversified foreign market, even for crops for which it has a high self-sufficiency. This study contributes to the discussion on the vulnerability of agri-food supply to the impacts of extreme weather disasters (EWD). We focus on the largest import commodities of the EU-28 and we aim to (1) map external dependencies of EU-28 agri-food sector, (2) estimate the impact of EWD on crop production in countries from which the EU-28 receives their imports, and (3) assess the exposure of EU-28 agri-food imports to such impacts. Crop and trade data are acquired through EUROSTAT and FAOSTAT, EWD records from EM-DAT, all between 1961 and 2016. A superposed epoch analysis is used to estimate the impact of EWD on the average national production, yield and harvested area of selected crops in exporting countries. The EU-28 imports between 35-100% of its consumption of soybeans, banana, tropical fruits, coffee and cocoa. Our study reveals a substantial impact of EWD, especially due to droughts and heat waves, on the production of soybeans, tropical fruits, and cocoa, with import weighted impacts of 3, 8, and 7%, respectively. Floods cause weighted impacts of 7% (soybeans) and 8% (tropical fruits). Coffee production shows gains during cold waves, but the inter-annual variability offsets these effects. This study provides conclusions that may support EU-28 on the development of adaptation schemes in external supplier countries to secure EU-28 food supply. Such schemes may prioritize provisions contributing for the stability of crop production and incomes in those countries, while dealing with future adverse EWD impacts.
AB - EU-28 relies on a diversified foreign market, even for crops for which it has a high self-sufficiency. This study contributes to the discussion on the vulnerability of agri-food supply to the impacts of extreme weather disasters (EWD). We focus on the largest import commodities of the EU-28 and we aim to (1) map external dependencies of EU-28 agri-food sector, (2) estimate the impact of EWD on crop production in countries from which the EU-28 receives their imports, and (3) assess the exposure of EU-28 agri-food imports to such impacts. Crop and trade data are acquired through EUROSTAT and FAOSTAT, EWD records from EM-DAT, all between 1961 and 2016. A superposed epoch analysis is used to estimate the impact of EWD on the average national production, yield and harvested area of selected crops in exporting countries. The EU-28 imports between 35-100% of its consumption of soybeans, banana, tropical fruits, coffee and cocoa. Our study reveals a substantial impact of EWD, especially due to droughts and heat waves, on the production of soybeans, tropical fruits, and cocoa, with import weighted impacts of 3, 8, and 7%, respectively. Floods cause weighted impacts of 7% (soybeans) and 8% (tropical fruits). Coffee production shows gains during cold waves, but the inter-annual variability offsets these effects. This study provides conclusions that may support EU-28 on the development of adaptation schemes in external supplier countries to secure EU-28 food supply. Such schemes may prioritize provisions contributing for the stability of crop production and incomes in those countries, while dealing with future adverse EWD impacts.
KW - Crop production
KW - EU-28 external suppliers
KW - EU-28 import share-weighted impacts
KW - Extreme weather disasters
KW - Harvested area
KW - Yield
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85074460046&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1007/s12571-019-00975-2
DO - 10.1007/s12571-019-00975-2
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85074460046
SN - 1876-4517
VL - 11
SP - 1373
EP - 1393
JO - Food Security
JF - Food Security
IS - 6
ER -