TY - JOUR
T1 - Exploring the linear and non-linear effects of tourism on economic growth in the Cabo Verde Islands
T2 - Evidence from the ARDL and NARDL models
AU - Tavares, Rodolfo Varela
AU - Damásio, Bruno
N1 - info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/FCT/6817 - DCRRNI ID/UIDB%2F04152%2F2020/PT#
https://doi.org/10.54499/UIDB/04152/2020#
Damásio, B. (2024). Exploring the linear and non-linear effects of tourism on economic growth in the Cabo Verde Islands: Evidence from the ARDL and NARDL models. Current Issues in Tourism, 1-8. https://doi.org/10.1080/13683500.2024.2401498 --- This work was supported by national funds through FCT (Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia), under the project- UIDB/04152/2020 - Centro de Investigação em Gestão de Informação (MagIC)/NOVA IMS (https://doi.org/10.54499/UIDB/04152/2020).
PY - 2024/9/12
Y1 - 2024/9/12
N2 - In this study, we examine both symmetrical and asymmetrical effects of tourism on economic growth in the Cabo Verde Islands through ARDL and NARDL models. Using quarterly data from 2007Q1 to 2023Q2, and relying on the bounds test for co-integration and the Toda-Yamamoto approach for Granger non-causality testing, we found a linear long run relationship between visitor arrivals and real GDP with a bidirectional causality. While long-run effects show no asymmetry, the short-run analysis reveals asymmetric impacts of tourism expansion on growth, with differing effects for positive and negative shocks. Policy recommendations include prioritising expansive, inclusive, and income-generating tourism projects to support sustainable and diversified growth in Cabo Verde.
AB - In this study, we examine both symmetrical and asymmetrical effects of tourism on economic growth in the Cabo Verde Islands through ARDL and NARDL models. Using quarterly data from 2007Q1 to 2023Q2, and relying on the bounds test for co-integration and the Toda-Yamamoto approach for Granger non-causality testing, we found a linear long run relationship between visitor arrivals and real GDP with a bidirectional causality. While long-run effects show no asymmetry, the short-run analysis reveals asymmetric impacts of tourism expansion on growth, with differing effects for positive and negative shocks. Policy recommendations include prioritising expansive, inclusive, and income-generating tourism projects to support sustainable and diversified growth in Cabo Verde.
KW - Tourism-led growth hypothesis
KW - non-linear autoregressive distributedlags model
KW - asymmetric effects
KW - Toda-Yamamoto Granger non-causality test
KW - Cabo Verde Islands
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85203671586&partnerID=8YFLogxK
UR - https://www.webofscience.com/wos/woscc/full-record/WOS:001312512200001
U2 - 10.1080/13683500.2024.2401498
DO - 10.1080/13683500.2024.2401498
M3 - Letter
SN - 1368-3500
SP - 1
EP - 8
JO - Current Issues in Tourism
JF - Current Issues in Tourism
ER -
