Expectations in development economics

In this chapter, I review the elicitation and use of subjective expectations in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). I begin by describing several elicitation methods used in this context, together with the key relevant methodological issues, typical patterns of answers, and further considerations for those who wish to collect such data. I then describe existing applications, many of which seek to evaluate how expectations influence behavior in various domains, including health, education, the labor market, agricultural production, and migration. I further describe recent research involving randomized information interventions coupled with the elicitation of expectations, aimed at precisely identifying the effect of information on beliefs. The existing evidence suggests it is feasible and valuable to elicit expectations from survey respondents in LMICs.