European Energy Security: The new role of the Atlantic and the Portuguese Speaking Countries of the Region

The European Union (EU), namely after its expansion in the East, is proportionally much more dependent on Russia and Eurasia than the Middle
East/Persian Gulf region, counting on an energy province within it, although
facing a decline in production – the North Sea -, and with two regions of
proximity – the North of Africa and West Africa. Security of an energy supply
encompasses all Member-States, even if some regions are more vulnerable than
others; in particularly the less integrated and connected regions, such as the
Baltic region and Eastern Europe. Simultaneously, the Atlantic region is becoming the scene of important transformations, such as those arising from the discovery of new energy resources and technological advances that will impact the future. To this effect, the present work focuses its attention on the Atlantic, proposing to observe, analyze, and attempt to comprehend, as much as
possible, the future of its influence in geopolitical and geo-economics terms,
highlighting the role of Portugal and the Lusophone countries of the Atlantic
could potentially take regarding energy as an alternative route to the Russian
supply for the EU, allowing for a more energy secure Europe. This research paper consists of five chapters, including a vast bibliography revised. The period studied is from present time until 2030. We begin by presenting the current energy landscape. Following by analyzing the evolution of energy policy in the EU, from the institutionalization of the European Community to present time, especially focusing in more recent developments, namely the “Magic Triangle”, the European Strategy for Energy Security, and the Energy Union Package. The third chapter will consist of a diagnostic view of energy dependency in the EU, drawing attention to the role and influence of Russia in that regard. From there, we present a survey of the energy map in the Atlantic basin, highlighting the shale gas revolution in the U.S. and examining the energy resource potential of the Lusophone countries within the Atlantic region. In the fifth and final chapter we analyze the role Portugal will potentially have in the reinforcement of the Lusophone influence in Europe terms. For final considerations, we present four scenarios subordinate to the focus “The Energy System in the EU for 2030”