Euro Area membership and the probability of a sudden stop

an empirical assessment

Miguel Lebre de Freitas, Luís Catela Nunes, Madalena Sampaio Rodrigues

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Abstract

Using quarterly data from 1995 until 2014, we investigate whether Euro Area (EA) membership influences the probability of a European Union Member State going through an episode of sudden stop or through an episode of bonanza, after controlling for a number of push and pull factors. Overall, our results do not support the claim that EA membership constituted a weakness during the recent financial crisis. On the contrary, we find that EA membership decreases the probability of a sudden stop, all else equal. We find no evidence that being part of the EA has a direct effect on the probability of bonanza. When allowing for interaction effects, our results suggest that EA membership might have mitigated the risk perception arising from higher government debt in the case of bonanzas.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1-18
JournalJcms-Journal Of Common Market Studies
Volume56
Issue number4
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - May 2018

Fingerprint

Euro
financial crisis
indebtedness
Sudden stops
Euro area
interaction
evidence

Keywords

  • capital flows
  • sudden stop
  • push and pull factors
  • European Union
  • euro area

Cite this

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title = "Euro Area membership and the probability of a sudden stop: an empirical assessment",
abstract = "Using quarterly data from 1995 until 2014, we investigate whether Euro Area (EA) membership influences the probability of a European Union Member State going through an episode of sudden stop or through an episode of bonanza, after controlling for a number of push and pull factors. Overall, our results do not support the claim that EA membership constituted a weakness during the recent financial crisis. On the contrary, we find that EA membership decreases the probability of a sudden stop, all else equal. We find no evidence that being part of the EA has a direct effect on the probability of bonanza. When allowing for interaction effects, our results suggest that EA membership might have mitigated the risk perception arising from higher government debt in the case of bonanzas.",
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Euro Area membership and the probability of a sudden stop : an empirical assessment. / Lebre de Freitas, Miguel; Nunes, Luís Catela; Rodrigues, Madalena Sampaio.

In: Jcms-Journal Of Common Market Studies, Vol. 56, No. 4, 05.2018, p. 1-18.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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AU - Lebre de Freitas, Miguel

AU - Nunes, Luís Catela

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KW - push and pull factors

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KW - euro area

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