Eliciting survival expectations of the elderly in low-income countries

Evidence from India

Adeline Delavande, Jinkook Lee, Seetha Menon

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

1 Citation (Scopus)

Abstract

We examine several methodological considerations when eliciting probabilistic expectations in a developing country context using the Longitudinal Ageing Study in India (LASI). We conclude that although, on average, individuals are able to understand the concept of probability, responses are sensitive to framing effects and to own versus hypothetical-person effects. We find that overall, people are pessimistic about their survival probabilities compared with state-specific life tables and that socioeconomic status does influence beliefs about own survival expectations as found in previous literature in other countries. Higher levels of education and income have a positive association with survival expectations, and these associations persist even when conditioning on self-reported health. The results remain robust to several alternative specifications. We then compare the survival measures with objective measures of health. We find that activities of daily life, height, and low hemoglobin levels covary with subjective expectations in expected directions.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)673-699
Number of pages27
JournalDemography
Volume54
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2017

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low income
India
evidence
conditioning
health
level of education
social status
developing country
income
human being

Keywords

  • Aging
  • Biomarkers
  • Survival expectations

Cite this

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abstract = "We examine several methodological considerations when eliciting probabilistic expectations in a developing country context using the Longitudinal Ageing Study in India (LASI). We conclude that although, on average, individuals are able to understand the concept of probability, responses are sensitive to framing effects and to own versus hypothetical-person effects. We find that overall, people are pessimistic about their survival probabilities compared with state-specific life tables and that socioeconomic status does influence beliefs about own survival expectations as found in previous literature in other countries. Higher levels of education and income have a positive association with survival expectations, and these associations persist even when conditioning on self-reported health. The results remain robust to several alternative specifications. We then compare the survival measures with objective measures of health. We find that activities of daily life, height, and low hemoglobin levels covary with subjective expectations in expected directions.",
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Eliciting survival expectations of the elderly in low-income countries : Evidence from India. / Delavande, Adeline; Lee, Jinkook; Menon, Seetha.

In: Demography, Vol. 54, 2017, p. 673-699.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

TY - JOUR

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AU - Lee, Jinkook

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N1 - Funding: National Institute on Aging, The National Institutes of Health (grant nr. 2R01 AG030153, R03AG043052), Economic and Social Research Council Research Centre on Micro-Social Change (MiSoC) (grant nr. ES/L009153/1) and National Institute on Aging (grant nr. 2P01AG008291)

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