Eliciting probabilistic expectations with visual aids in developing countries: how sensitive are answers to variations in elicitation design?

Adeline Delavande, Xavier Giné, David Mckenzie

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

27 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Eliciting subjective probability distributions in developing countries is often based on visual aids such as beans to represent probabilities and intervals on a sheet of paper to represent the support. We conduct an experiment in India which tests the sensitivity of elicited expectations to variations in three facets of the elicitation methodology: the number of beans, the design of the support (predetermined or self-anchored), and the ordering of questions. Our results show remarkable robustness to variations in elicitation design. Nevertheless, the added precision offered by using more beans and a larger number of intervals with a predetermined support improves accuracy.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)479-497
Number of pages19
JournalJournal Of Applied Econometrics
Volume26
Issue number3
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1 Apr 2011

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