Abstract
Eliciting subjective probability distributions in developing countries is often based on visual aids such as beans to represent probabilities and intervals on a sheet of paper to represent the support. We conduct an experiment in India which tests the sensitivity of elicited expectations to variations in three facets of the elicitation methodology: the number of beans, the design of the support (predetermined or self-anchored), and the ordering of questions. Our results show remarkable robustness to variations in elicitation design. Nevertheless, the added precision offered by using more beans and a larger number of intervals with a predetermined support improves accuracy.
Original language | English |
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Pages (from-to) | 479-497 |
Number of pages | 19 |
Journal | Journal Of Applied Econometrics |
Volume | 26 |
Issue number | 3 |
DOIs | |
Publication status | Published - 1 Apr 2011 |