Ecosystem services and biodiversity trends in Mozambique as a consequence of land cover change

The incorporation of ecosystem services (ES) information in planning decisions is an important factor in the sustainable use of natural resources. However, studies assessing the levels and changes of these services at national level are rare. In this paper, we estimate past and future changes in multiple ES and biodiversity, as a consequence of land cover change (LCC) in Mozambique. Water yield, water quality, erosion regulation, climate regulation, and biodiversity were modeled using a spatially explicit approach. Changes in ES and biodiversity were mapped at province level between 2005 and 2009. Through the use of a land change model, land cover was projected for 2025, and the resulting impacts on ES and biodiversity were estimated. We found a moderate increase in climate regulating service between 2005 and 2009. However, water quality (nutrient retention) and biodiversity decreased. LCC for 2025 is expected to have a similar impact on these ES. This study contributes with a methodology that can be useful for monitoring ES and assist decision policies affecting ES provision and trade-offs.