Do credit markets respond to macroeconomic shocks? The case for reverse causality

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

1 Citation (Scopus)
10 Downloads (Pure)

Abstract

The response of corporate bond credit spreads to three exogenous macro-shocks -- oil supply, investment-specific technology, and government spending -- is large, significant, and a mirror image of macroeconomic activity. This counter-cyclicality is largely driven by credit risk premia and translates into significant return predictability. Equity risk premia exhibit similar responses, providing external validity. Information rigidities and leverage play a key role in the transmission of the shocks. Since causal evidence linking macro-shocks to credit markets is scarce and recent work highlights the real effects of credit fluctuations, our findings contribute to understanding the joint dynamics of credit markets and the macroeconomy.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)2901-2943
JournalThe Journal of Finance
Volume78
Issue number5
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1 Oct 2023

Keywords

  • Credit spreads
  • Time-Varying Risk Premia
  • Macroeconomic risk
  • Shocks
  • Return Predictability

Fingerprint

Dive into the research topics of 'Do credit markets respond to macroeconomic shocks? The case for reverse causality'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.

Cite this