TY - JOUR
T1 - COVID-19
T2 - nothing is normal in this pandemic
AU - Gonçalves, Luzia
AU - Turkman, Maria Antónia Amaral
AU - Geraldes, Carlos
AU - Marques, Tiago A
AU - Sousa, Lisete
N1 - Funding Information:
This work was partially support by CEAUL (funded by FCT – Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia, Portugal, through the project UIDB/00006/2020).
Funding Information:
This work was partially support by CEAUL (funded by FCT - Funda??o para a Ci?ncia e a Tecnologia, Portugal, through the project UIDB/00006/2020).
Publisher Copyright:
© 2021 The Authors.
PY - 2021/1/20
Y1 - 2021/1/20
N2 - This manuscript brings attention to inaccurate epidemiological concepts that emerged during the COVID-19 pandemic. In social media and scientific journals, some wrong references were given to a "normal epidemic curve" and also to a "log-normal curve/distribution". For many years, textbooks and courses of reputable institutions and scientific journals have disseminated misleading concepts. For example, calling histogram to plots of epidemic curves or using epidemic data to introduce the concept of a Gaussian distribution, ignoring its temporal indexing. Although an epidemic curve may look like a Gaussian curve and be eventually modelled by a Gauss function, it is not a normal distribution or a log-normal, as some authors claim. A pandemic produces highly-complex data and to tackle it effectively statistical and mathematical modelling need to go beyond the "one-size-fits-all solution". Classical textbooks need to be updated since pandemics happen and epidemiology needs to provide reliable information to policy recommendations and actions.
AB - This manuscript brings attention to inaccurate epidemiological concepts that emerged during the COVID-19 pandemic. In social media and scientific journals, some wrong references were given to a "normal epidemic curve" and also to a "log-normal curve/distribution". For many years, textbooks and courses of reputable institutions and scientific journals have disseminated misleading concepts. For example, calling histogram to plots of epidemic curves or using epidemic data to introduce the concept of a Gaussian distribution, ignoring its temporal indexing. Although an epidemic curve may look like a Gaussian curve and be eventually modelled by a Gauss function, it is not a normal distribution or a log-normal, as some authors claim. A pandemic produces highly-complex data and to tackle it effectively statistical and mathematical modelling need to go beyond the "one-size-fits-all solution". Classical textbooks need to be updated since pandemics happen and epidemiology needs to provide reliable information to policy recommendations and actions.
U2 - 10.2991/jegh.k.210108.001
DO - 10.2991/jegh.k.210108.001
M3 - Article
C2 - 33605119
SN - 2210-6006
JO - Journal of epidemiology and global health
JF - Journal of epidemiology and global health
ER -