Climate proofing the renewable electricity deployment in Europe - Introducing climate variability in large energy systems models

Sofia G. Simoes, Filipa Amorim, Gildas Siggini, Valentina Sessa, Yves Marie Saint-Drenan, Sílvia Carvalho, Hamza Mraihi, Edi Assoumou

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

9 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Climate and weather conditions influence energy demand. as well as electricity generation, especially due to the strong development of renewable energy. The changes of the European energy mix, together with ongoing climate change, raise a number of questions on impact on the electricity sector. In this paper we present results for the whole of the European power sector regarding on how considering current and future climate variability affects the results of a TIMES energy system model for the whole European power sector (eTIMES-EU) up to 2050. For each member-state we consider six climate projections to generate future capacity factors for wind, solar and hydro power generation. as well as temperature impact on electricity demand for heating and cooling. These are input into the eTIMES-EU model to assess how climate affects the optimal operation of the power system and if current EU-wide RES and emissions target deployment may be affected. Results show that although at EU-wide level there are no substantial changes, there are significant differences in countries RES deployment (especially wind and solar) and in electricity trade.

Original languageEnglish
Article number100657
JournalEnergy Strategy Reviews
Volume35
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - May 2021

Keywords

  • Climate change
  • Climate variability
  • European power sector
  • TIMES optimization Model
  • Variable renewables power

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