TY - JOUR
T1 - Business cycle synchronization across U.S. states
AU - Aguiar-Conraria, Luís
AU - Brinca, Pedro
AU - Gujónsson, Haukur Viar
AU - Soares, Maria Joana
N1 - Funding: FEDER - "Programa Operacional Factores de Competitividade - COMPETE" and FCT-Fundacao para a Ciencia e Tecnologia - FCOMP-01-0124-FEDER-037268 (PEst-C/EGE/UI3182/2013), SFRH/BPD/99758/2014 and UID/ECO/00124/2013.
PY - 2017/1/1
Y1 - 2017/1/1
N2 - We use wavelet analysis to conclude that individual U.S. states' business cycles are very well synchronized. We also find evidence of a strong and significant correlation between business cycle dissimilitudes and the distance between each pair of states, consistent to gravity type mechanisms where distance affects trade. Trade, in turn, increases business cycle synchronization, while a higher degree of industry specialization is associated with a higher dissimilitude of the state cycle with the aggregate economy. Finally, there is evidence that business cycle dissimilitudes have been decreasing with time, consistent with the previous findings coupled with the idea that information and communications technology make distances smaller.
AB - We use wavelet analysis to conclude that individual U.S. states' business cycles are very well synchronized. We also find evidence of a strong and significant correlation between business cycle dissimilitudes and the distance between each pair of states, consistent to gravity type mechanisms where distance affects trade. Trade, in turn, increases business cycle synchronization, while a higher degree of industry specialization is associated with a higher dissimilitude of the state cycle with the aggregate economy. Finally, there is evidence that business cycle dissimilitudes have been decreasing with time, consistent with the previous findings coupled with the idea that information and communications technology make distances smaller.
KW - business cycle synchronization
KW - continuous wavelet transform
KW - trade
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85011066690&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1515/bejm-2015-0158
DO - 10.1515/bejm-2015-0158
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85011066690
SN - 2194-6116
VL - 17
SP - 1
EP - 15
JO - The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics
JF - The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics
IS - 1
M1 - 20150158
ER -