Bayesian joint modeling of longitudinal and spatial survival AIDS data

Rui Martins, Giovani L Silva, Valeska Andreozzi

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

16 Citations (Scopus)


Joint analysis of longitudinal and survival data has received increasing attention in the recent years, especially for analyzing cancer and AIDS data. As both repeated measurements (longitudinal) and time-to-event (survival) outcomes are observed in an individual, a joint modeling is more appropriate because it takes into account the dependence between the two types of responses, which are often analyzed separately. We propose a Bayesian hierarchical model for jointly modeling longitudinal and survival data considering functional time and spatial frailty effects, respectively. That is, the proposed model deals with non-linear longitudinal effects and spatial survival effects accounting for the unobserved heterogeneity among individuals living in the same region. This joint approach is applied to a cohort study of patients with HIV/AIDS in Brazil during the years 2002-2006. Our Bayesian joint model presents considerable improvements in the estimation of survival times of the Brazilian HIV/AIDS patients when compared with those obtained through a separate survival model and shows that the spatial risk of death is the same across the different Brazilian states. Copyright (c) 2016 John Wiley Sons, Ltd.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)3368-3384
Number of pages17
JournalStatistics in Medicine
Issue number19
Publication statusPublished - 30 Aug 2016


  • joint model
  • Bayesian analysis
  • repeated measurements
  • time-to-event data
  • spatial frailty
  • Mathematical & Computational Biology
  • Public, Environmental & Occupational Health
  • Medical Informatics
  • Research & Experimental Medicine
  • Mathematics


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