Assessing the impact of shocks on international tourism demand for Portugal

Ana C. M. Daniel, Paulo M. M. Rodrigues

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

3 Citations (Scopus)


In this paper, a vector autoregressive (VAR) framework is used to model international tourism demand from the five main inbound tourism countries for Portugal: Germany, Spain, France, the Netherlands and the UK. Given the non-stationarity of the variables considered, vector error correction models (VECMs) are estimated. These are then used to analyse the impulse response functions in order to determine how international tourism demand for Portugal reacts to shocks to some of its important drivers, such as income, the cost of living in Portugal and the cost of living in Spain (the last as representative of the price in the main competing market with Portugal).

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)617-634
Number of pages18
JournalTourism Economics
Issue number3
Publication statusPublished - Jun 2012
Event4th Biennial Conference on Advances in Tourism Economics (ATE) - Lisbon, Portugal
Duration: 14 Apr 201115 Apr 2011


  • VAR
  • VECM
  • impulse response function
  • tourism demand
  • Portugal

Cite this