Assessing the competitiveness and trade-offs of national hydrogen strategies in the Maghreb: TIMES scenario-based analysis

North Africa's Maghreb countries Morocco, Tunisia, and Algeria aim to become key players in the global green hydrogen market. However, rising hydrogen demand challenges their ability to balance domestic, decarbonization efforts with export ambitions. This study assesses the techno-economic trade-offs between national hydrogen targets and export goals, evaluating their alignment with climate commitments using the TIMES-MAGe model. Five scenarios explore variations in electrolysis energy sourcing (renewables vs. grid) and water supply (surface vs. desalinated), under both local-only and export-oriented strategies. Results show that while export-driven hydrogen production is feasible, it imposes significant economic and resource burdens. By 2050, exports sharply increase hydrogen production costs, electricity prices, investment needs, and water use. The competitiveness of renewable electricity is weakened as most renewable electricity is allocated to hydrogen exports, constraining domestic decarbonization. Intra-regional hydrogen trade is less cost-effective than domestic supply, with pipeline repurposing offering the most viable trade option. The findings inform future policy for cost-effective hydrogen development.