Aquaculture carrying capacity estimates show that major African lakes and marine waters could sustainably produce 10–11 Mt of fish per year

Aquaculture carrying capacity (CC) can be used to guide sustainable aquaculture development over the long term through the regenerative power of the environment. In this study, a model has been developed to estimate CC by combining marine spatial planning for physical CC, management criteria for production CC, eutrophication and pathogen risk for ecological CC, and social acceptance based on legislative and management criteria. The estimates of CC for major African freshwater lakes and the marine exclusive economic zones of Africa indicate that 10–11 Mt of fish could be produced annually while preserving ecosystem goods and services, potentially increasing fish consumption by the population of the African continent by 7 kg per capita per year (an increase of 70%). Supply-side forecasts and demand-side estimates can support policymakers in defining targets for aquaculture expansion that avoid ecological, economic and social tipping points.