An integrated PROMETHEE II-Roadmap model: Application to the recovery of residual agroforestry biomass in Portugal

Rural fires are currently one of the main global disasters, and Portugal is among the countries that have suffered from them for decades. These fires pose economic, environmental, and social threats to the country. A primary cause of rural fires is the burning of biomass to clear agroforestry residues. Thus, combating rural fires requires more effective forest management, particularly the removal of forest residues that serve as fuel. These residues, also known as biomass, have significant potential for energy production and biofuel use. This paper proposes a model that integrates the PROMETHEE decision-making method with the roadmapping. This proposed model includes 7 steps, including the planning of the roadmap, the definition of the decision problem, gathering information and building the roadmap. The proposed model was applied to develop a roadmap proposal for the recovery of surplus agroforestry biomass in Portugal, identifying the most emerging conversion technologies in the national context. With the roadmap developed, it was possible to understand that the recovery of surplus agroforestry biomass in Portugal involves several sectors. The energy sector is one of those that can benefit from the recovery of leftover agroforestry biomass, both from the point of view of carbon neutrality and energy independence. Forestry management is another of the great advantages of recovering leftover forestry biomass and, consequently, reducing the number of fires. In the context of recovery, combustion is the most widely used technology for producing energy or heat. The technology identified as most emerging in the upcoming years is gasification. Investment in scientific research is essential for the success of this sector, as is the development of public incentive policies and more engagement from all stakeholders. This paper conclude that valorizing agroforestry residues can reduce rural fire risks while promoting energy independence, sustainable regional development, and innovation in Portugal.