An evidence-based approach to improve cardiovascular public health Policies: the cardio policy optimiser project [abstract]

Public health policies (PHP) play a crucial role in shaping population health. Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of mortality and morbidity worldwide, exerting a substantial burden on healthcare systems and economies. Atherosclerosis, as a primary cause of CVD-related morbidity and mortality, requires targeted and evidence-based interventions. This project introduces a novel simulation tool – the Cardio Policy Optimiser (CPO) – designed to evaluate the potential impact of PHP on cardiovascular outcomes, focusing on atherosclerosis and economic sustainability, addressing the need for data-driven strategies to reduce long-term societal costs. Initially piloted in Portugal, the project aims to expand globally, starting with three new countries on a first phase. The core of the CPO project is a preliminary Bayesian epidemiological model, ATHEROS 1, developed to simulate scenarios under ceteris paribus scenario conditions. It targets populations aged ≥20 years (both sexes), integrating parameters such as lifestyle factors and comorbidities. The model assesses the marginal impact of 12 PHP at four levels of implementation, projecting health outcomes, quality of life implications, and economic costs related to atherosclerosis between 2026 and 2034. It also simulates the potential of these policy interventions in reducing disease burden through improved prevention and earlier diagnosis. The ATHEROS model provides actionable insights to support evidence-based public health decision-making. Given the complexity of CVDs and their co-occurrence with other chronic diseases, effective preventive strategies are paramount. This tool has the potential not only for policymakers, but also primary healthcare professionals, enabling a comprehensive, forward-looking approach to CVD disease prevention and management.