A State Space Model Approach for Modelling the Population Dynamics of Black Scabbardfish in Portuguese Mainland Waters

Isabel Natário, Ivone Figueiredo, M. Lucília Carvalho

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingChapterpeer-review


Black scabbardfish (Aphanopus carbo Lowe, 1839) is a widely distributed species across the Atlantic ocean. In Portuguese mainland waters the existing specimens are immature (not able to reproduce). It is admitted that they have migrated from the West of the British Isles and that they remain in the area for some years, until they attain an adequate size or physiological conditions which allow them to migrate and reproduce elsewhere.

The present study aims to model the dynamics of the population of black scabbardfish living in the International Council for the Exploration of the Seas Division IXa, for which disaggregated data are available, although within the context of a larger population. With this purpose, a state-space model is used, which enables the estimation of the unknown abundance (latent process) by exploring its dependency relationship with the observational data on the species fishing landings in that area. The population is partitioned into length groups and the population evolution process is subdivided into biological related subprocesses. The estimation is achieved within a Bayesian paradigm, where all the available biological information is incorporated in the prior distributions of the parameters of the subprocesses. Later, short-term trajectories of the population living in IXa are studied, via simulations that are constructed based on different management scenarios.
Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationDynamics, Games and Science
Subtitle of host publication International Conference and Advanced School Planet Earth, DGS II, Portugal, August 28--September 6, 2013
EditorsJean-Pierre Bourguignon, Rolf Jeltsch, Adrego Alberto Pinto, Marcelo Viana
Place of PublicationCham
PublisherSpringer International Publishing AG
Number of pages14
ISBN (Electronic)978-3-319-16117-4
ISBN (Print)978-3-319-16118-1
Publication statusPublished - 2015




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